Florida homeowners might be ready to celebrate Gov. Ron DeSantis' latest pitch: eliminate property taxes entirely. But economists are warning that this apparent windfall could come with consequences, especially for anyone still trying to crack into the housing market.

"Home ownership should mean you fully own your home, not be forced to pay rent to the government in the form of property taxes," DeSantis wrote on X in October, calling the current system unfair and bloated. His proposed overhaul would eliminate property taxes for owner-occupied homes, giving millions of Floridians instant relief from one of their heftiest annual expenses.

And those bills have been climbing. According to a 2024 Redfin report, property tax costs have increased in nearly every major U.S. metro since 2019, with Florida claiming three of the top five metros with the biggest jumps. Given that context, the governor's proposal has found plenty of enthusiastic support among frustrated homeowners.

But here's the catch: according to a new analysis from Realtor.com's economic research team, that relief could trigger a surge in home prices, with values jumping 7% to 9% almost immediately. In dollar terms, that would inflate Florida's housing market by $200 billion to $250 billion, creating a massive windfall for current homeowners while leaving renters and future buyers staring at even more intimidating price tags.

"It would be a boon to existing property owners," said Joel Berner, Realtor.com's senior economist and author of the analysis. "But this measure would disproportionately benefit wealthy Floridians at the expense of those who don't own homes, and would make it even harder to break into homeownership because of the increased prices."

The logic is straightforward: recurring expenses like property taxes get "capitalized" into home values. Reduce the expense, and the property becomes more valuable, not less. That's excellent news if you already own. Not so excellent if you're still saving for a down payment in a state where affordability has already been stretched thin by high mortgage rates and limited inventory.

The situation gets worse when you consider who benefits most. Berner notes that the advantages would skew heavily toward wealthier Floridians with higher-value homes. Renters and aspiring buyers would receive no direct benefit but would still have to compete in a significantly more expensive market.

The study does caution that the final impact depends on how the plan gets implemented, including whether voters approve it and how local governments replace lost revenue. But if enacted, the price spike could happen quickly.

There's also a risk that prices rise faster than demand can absorb. If homes become overvalued, some sellers could struggle to find buyers willing or able to meet those inflated costs.

As home values climb, more homeowners may start viewing their property less like a permanent address and more like a financial asset. That's where platforms like Nada come in, offering "Homeshares" — equity-based agreements that let homeowners unlock cash now by selling a portion of their home's future value, with no interest, no monthly payments, and no new debt.

Unlike a traditional loan, these deals settle later, usually when the owner sells, refinances, or buys out the agreement. For investors, the upside depends on home appreciation. Nada targets net internal rates of return between 14% and 17%, making these contracts increasingly attractive as property values rise.

It's a dream scenario for those who already own. But for renters and would-be buyers, the ladder to homeownership may be climbing just out of reach — again.

As DeSantis pushes to eliminate taxes in the name of true ownership, the real tension may not be between owners and government, but between those already inside the market and those still locked out.