Sometimes diplomacy comes with a price tag measured in fertilizer. The United States lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash exports over the weekend after President Alexander Lukashenko freed 123 political prisoners in what marks the largest release since Washington and Minsk started talking.

The Deal Behind Closed Doors

The prisoner release followed two days of negotiations between Lukashenko and John Coale, the newly appointed U.S. special envoy for Belarus, according to statements from the Belarusian presidency.

Among those freed were some prominent names: Nobel Peace Prize winner and human rights activist Ales Bialiatski, opposition leader Maria Kalesnikava, and former presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka. Ukrainian authorities confirmed that 114 civilians, including both Ukrainian and Belarusian citizens, were transferred to Ukraine.

Why Potash Matters

Here's the economic backdrop: Belarus is a heavyweight in global potash production, and this stuff matters. Potash is a critical fertilizer ingredient, and it's one of Belarus's biggest export commodities. Before the 2020 political crisis erupted, potash exports were pulling in $2.4 billion annually, accounting for roughly 8% of total exports and about 4% of the country's gross domestic product, according to National Statistical Committee data.

The sanctions hit after Belarus cracked down following contested 2020 elections, then got tightened further in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Bigger Geopolitical Game

U.S. officials told Reuters this isn't just about human rights. The diplomatic push aims to pry Lukashenko away from President Vladimir Putin's grip. Belarus has been a steadfast Russian ally, which makes it strategically valuable.

The Trump administration sees Lukashenko's Putin connection as potentially useful for Ukraine peace talks. "Your president has a long history with President Putin and has the ability to advise him," Coale reportedly said, according to state news agency Belta.

The Work That Remains

According to Viasna, the human rights organization headed by Bialiatski, 1,197 people in Belarus were still classified as political prisoners as of Saturday.

Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya acknowledged the release resulted from "brilliant diplomacy & consistent pressure" but pushed for continued European sanctions. "Pressure must continue until repression ends, all prisoners are free & Belarus can begin its democratic future," she wrote on X.