Navan, Inc. (NAVN) shares gained ground Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the company's quarterly earnings report, betting that business travel is holding steady and the expense management platform is gaining momentum.
The optimism reflects expectations that corporate travel demand remains resilient, expense-management subscriptions continue expanding, and the company's newly launched AI-driven platform could be gaining early traction. Navan will report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after markets close on Monday, December 15, 2025.
Analyst Expectations Point to Solid Quarter
Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy maintains a Buy rating on Navan with a price target of $30, saying he expects a steady third quarter with possible upside surprises. His model projects total revenue around $181.4 million, roughly in line with consensus estimates.
Abernethy expects usage revenue to climb 20% year over year, driven by booking-related transaction activity. Subscription revenue should grow even faster as the company's expense tools gain traction with customers. He notes that while year-over-year growth should moderate from the prior quarter, it should remain solid overall.
The analyst projects a 6.3% non-GAAP operating margin and a non-GAAP loss per share of 49 cents. At this stage, usage revenue should represent roughly 92% of quarterly sales, with subscriptions accounting for the remaining 8%. He models non-GAAP operating income near $11.4 million and an adjusted net loss of $25.2 million, with usage yield expected around 7%, slightly below the prior quarter's level.
Business Travel Shows Strong Recovery
Supporting the bullish case, Navan's own Business Travel Index shows 20% growth in business travel activity. Abernethy points out that government and financial services sectors drove the biggest increases in travel spending, suggesting corporate travel budgets are returning after pandemic-era cuts.
Beyond the numbers, Abernethy will be watching for new enterprise customer wins, particularly large, global organizations. He highlighted UK-based retailer Frasers Group as a recent example. The company, which operates more than 1,500 locations, recently selected Navan as its global partner for travel and expense management.
AI Platform Could Be Next Growth Driver
On the product side, Abernethy is tracking early adoption of Navan Cognition, a platform announced in June that enables enterprises to build and deploy advanced AI agent teams. The technology represents a potential expansion beyond traditional travel and expense management into broader enterprise workflow automation.
Abernethy added that the company's October IPO strengthened its financial position and should leave net cash near $600 million, providing flexibility for growth investments and strategic initiatives.
NAVN Price Action: Navan shares were up 3.12% at $14.35 at the time of publication on Friday.
