Coinbase Eyes a Piece of the Prediction Market Boom
Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) is apparently ready to shake things up. Bloomberg reported Friday that the crypto exchange is planning to launch prediction markets and tokenized equities next week, and here's the interesting part: they're building everything in-house, no outside partners needed.
A Coinbase spokesperson stayed coy on specifics but invited people to tune into a Dec. 17 livestream for details. Screenshots allegedly showing early versions of these features inside the Coinbase app have been making the rounds on X lately, which has naturally gotten people talking.
This isn't Coinbase trying to invent something new. They're entering a space that's already heating up fast. Kalshi and Polymarket basically own prediction markets right now, and the numbers are kind of wild. Combined monthly volumes for these two platforms jumped to about $7.7 billion in November from roughly $1.3 billion back in August. That's nearly a sixfold increase in three months.
Everyone Wants In on This Game
Coinbase isn't the only one eyeing this opportunity. Gemini (GEMI) recently scored approval from the CFTC to operate a Designated Contract Market, which clears the regulatory path for its own event-based contracts platform. Crypto.com partnered with Fanatics earlier this month to launch a fan-driven prediction market focused on sports and entertainment outcomes.
The pattern here is pretty clear. Crypto exchanges are scrambling to diversify their revenue beyond basic spot trading. Fees keep getting squeezed, regulations keep getting tighter, and everyone's looking for the next thing that actually makes money. Prediction markets apparently look like that next thing.
The Stock Isn't Celebrating Yet
While Coinbase preps these product launches, COIN stock is having a rough time finding its footing. Shares closed down 2.21% on Thursday at $269, though premarket trading showed a modest bounce of about 0.5% Friday morning.
The stock is trying to hold above the $264 support zone, which lines up with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and has successfully defended multiple times this week. That's the good news. The not-so-good news is that the broader technical structure still looks bearish.
COIN continues trading below its main descending trendline, and it keeps getting rejected near the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. Until the stock can reclaim the $275 to $295 range, traders will probably treat any upside moves as temporary relief rallies rather than the start of something meaningful.
Key technical levels paint a picture of a stock stuck in limbo. Support sits at $264 and $250. Resistance comes in at $275.88 near the EMA cluster, with a heavier breakout zone between $292 and $303. Above that range, Fibonacci targets sit near $284, $301, and $318.
Technical Indicators Reflect the Uncertainty
The Relative Strength Index is hovering around 44, which signals neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt since it's below the 50 level. COIN is also wedged between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci zones, a range that typically reflects indecision as traders wait for something to tip the scales one way or the other.
A sustained move above $275 would be the first real sign that buyers are taking back control. But to actually challenge the larger downtrend and shift sentiment in a meaningful way, the stock would need to break above $292. That's where things could get interesting.
So Coinbase is pushing forward with ambitious product launches while the stock price sits in technical purgatory. It's not an uncommon situation in crypto, where fundamental developments and price action often seem to exist in parallel universes. The question now is whether new revenue streams from prediction markets and tokenized equities can eventually translate into a stock chart that stops disappointing shareholders.
