Lennar Corporation (LEN) is about to face the music. The Miami-based homebuilder will report its fourth quarter earnings after markets close on Tuesday, December 16, and Wall Street's most accurate forecasters have been busy recalibrating their expectations.
The numbers tell a sobering story. Analysts are expecting quarterly earnings of $2.18 per share, a sharp drop from the $4.03 per share Lennar posted in the same period last year. Revenue estimates sit at $9.13 billion, down from the $9.95 billion the company brought in a year ago.
The recent analyst activity paints a picture of growing caution. On December 8, Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley downgraded Lennar from Equal-Weight to Underweight, though he did nudge his price target up from $95 to $98. Bouley carries a 67% accuracy rate on his calls.
Just days earlier on December 4, JP Morgan's Michael Rehaut made a similar move, downgrading the stock from Neutral to Underweight and trimming his price target from $118 to $115. Rehaut's track record shows a 69% accuracy rate.
Not everyone's bearish, though. UBS analyst John Lovallo maintained his Buy rating back in September and actually raised his price target from $146 to $161. With a 67% accuracy rate, Lovallo represents the optimistic minority among top forecasters.
Bank of America Securities analyst Rafe Jadrosich held steady with a Neutral rating in October but slashed his price target from $133 to $125. His accuracy rate stands at 66%. Meanwhile, Evercore ISI Group's Stephen Kim also kept an In-Line rating in early October while cutting his target from $118 to $114, matching the 67% accuracy rate.
Adding to the narrative, Lennar announced in November that Jonathan Jaffe, the company's co-CEO and president, would be retiring. Leadership transitions always add an extra layer of uncertainty for investors trying to gauge a company's direction.
Shares of Lennar closed down 0.7% at $119.15 on Thursday, sitting somewhere in the middle of those widely varying analyst price targets.
