GE Vernova (GEV) just threw down some serious numbers at its Investor Day on December 9, and Wall Street is trying to figure out whether to applaud or take profits. The energy equipment giant raised its 2028 financial targets, doubled its quarterly dividend to 50 cents, and expanded its share buyback program to $10 billion. All good news, right? Well, it depends on who you ask.

Seaport Global analyst Tom Curran thinks the party might be over, at least for now. After watching GE Vernova climb to around $723, he downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. His reasoning? The risk-reward profile just looks more balanced now that the stock has rallied hard and the new targets are baked into expectations. Sometimes the best trade is admitting you already won.

Here's what management is promising by 2028: $52 billion in revenue (that's a 12% to 13% compound annual growth rate), $10 billion in EBITDA, and a 20% EBITDA margin. They're also projecting cumulative free cash flow of $22 billion from 2025 through 2028. For 2026 specifically, expect $41 billion to $42 billion in revenue, EBITDA margins between 11% and 13%, and free cash flow in the $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion range. Those figures exclude Prolec, though management remains upbeat about that business.

Data Centers Are Driving the Power Surge

The real growth story here is Power and Gas, particularly the surging demand from hyperscale data centers. Curran notes that these massive computing facilities now account for over one-third of recent orders, helping push GE Vernova's backlog toward an 80GW year-end target. The company expects its fulfillment capacity to hit 20GW by the third quarter of 2026 and reach 24GW by 2028 through capital-light expansions. Meanwhile, the Electrification division plans to double its backlog (excluding Prolec) by 2028.

AI and cloud computing need electricity, and lots of it. GE Vernova is positioned to benefit from that structural trend as hyperscalers race to build out infrastructure.

But the Risks Are Real

Curran's caution isn't without merit. GEV faces exposure to GDP fluctuations, shifts in electricity demand patterns, and the evolving needs of AI data centers. There's also policy uncertainty, fierce competition from other turbine manufacturers, project execution bottlenecks, commodity price swings, constrained utility capital budgets, intellectual property protection challenges, and the pressure to maintain investment-grade credit ratings. That's a lot of variables.

Not Everyone Is Backing Away

While Seaport is tapping the brakes, other analysts are still hitting the gas. Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch upgraded GE Vernova to Outperform with an $855 price target. UBS analyst Amit Mehrotra reiterated his Buy rating and raised his target from $760 to $835. The bull case clearly isn't dead.

Adding to the momentum, GE Vernova and Seatrium just landed a major contract from TenneT for BalWin5, a 2.2 GW high-voltage direct current offshore grid link. The project will deliver North Sea wind power to Germany by 2032 and is expected to supply electricity to 2.75 million homes, bolstering Germany's energy security. GE Vernova will provide the HVDC technology and converter stations, while Seatrium handles the design, construction, transport, and installation of the offshore platform.

Price Action: GE Vernova shares were down 4.65% at $689.39 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $731.00.