When the Dow Matters Most

President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Thursday with a triumphant announcement: "Stock market just hit an all-time high!!! When will the Fake Polls show that I am doing a great job on the Economy, and much more??? Thank you!"

Here's the thing, though. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 and serves as the go-to market benchmark for most investors, was trading down on Thursday. The index last hit its all-time high of $689.70 back on October 29, and it wasn't anywhere near that level when Trump posted.

So what was he talking about? The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) actually did hit a new all-time high of $487.44 on Thursday. The Dow was having a good day while its more popular cousins were not.

Both the S&P 500 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, were trading lower that day. They're hovering near all-time highs, sure, but they didn't actually set records on Thursday. The Dow did, and apparently that's the number Trump is watching.

A Question of Relevance

For decades, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the stock market indicator everyone followed. But here's the catch: it only includes 30 U.S. stocks, and it uses a price-weighted strategy that many market watchers consider outdated. Ask most professional investors today, and they'll tell you the Dow has become less relevant over the years.

The S&P 500, introduced in the 1950s, eventually became the gold standard. It tracks 500 U.S. companies weighted by market capitalization, making it a more comprehensive snapshot of the market. It's also the index tracked by the first-ever ETF, cementing its place in investing history.

The Nasdaq 100 captures 100 of the largest non-financial stocks on the Nasdaq, serving as a pulse check for the technology sector and high-growth companies. It's become increasingly important as tech has dominated market returns.

When Trump's post made its way to X (formerly Twitter), the reactions were swift. "The DOW is 30 companies. No one under 80 thinks the DJIA is the stock market," one user quipped. The comment captures a broader sentiment: younger investors and market professionals tend to focus on broader indices.

Grading on a Curve

Trump has consistently used stock market performance as evidence of economic strength, even as many Americans express concerns about inflation, rising consumer prices, and healthcare costs. The disconnect between Wall Street gains and Main Street pain is real.

When Politico recently asked Trump what grade he'd give the economy, he started with an "A+" before upgrading himself to an "A+++++." That's a lot of plus signs.

Voters, however, aren't quite as generous with their grading. A new Morning Consult poll shows Trump with a 45% approval rating, unchanged for three straight weeks. His disapproval rating stands at 52%, also flat for three weeks. That creates a net approval rating of -7.

Under the traditional school grading system where 60% is passing, a 45% approval rating would translate to an F. Not quite the A+++++ Trump gave himself.

The economic disconnect goes deeper. The Morning Consult poll revealed that 71% of voters consider reducing consumer prices a "top priority" for Trump. But only 46% believe he's actually making it a top priority. That gap represents a failing grade by any measure.

Trump has dismissed affordability concerns as a Democratic hoax, but the polling data tells a different story. Consumer prices remain at the top of voters' minds, regardless of what's happening with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Even Trump's trade policy approval, which had been improving in recent weeks, has started to slip. Voters are now two percentage points more likely to disapprove than approve of his trade policies, marking a reversal of the positive momentum he'd been building.

So yes, the stock market hit an all-time high on Thursday. Just maybe not the one you were thinking of.