Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is mounting an aggressive defense against MSCI's proposed rule that could boot Bitcoin-treasury companies from global indexes. The timing is particularly sensitive: Strategy's stock is trading nearly 60% below its peak, and the company is warning that MSCI's methodology could destabilize the entire index construction framework.

The Fight Over Bitcoin Treasury Classification

Strategy submitted a 12-page letter to the MSCI Equity Index Committee laying out its case against the proposed 50% digital-asset threshold. The core argument? Bitcoin-treasury firms would be forced to "whipsaw on and off" major indexes as market prices fluctuate, creating chaos for index providers and passive investors alike.

The company takes issue with what it calls an arbitrary definition that ignores actual operational activity. As more U.S. corporations build out digital-asset treasuries, Strategy argues, MSCI's approach becomes increasingly disconnected from business reality.

Here's where it gets messier: accounting standards vary by jurisdiction. Michael Saylor's Strategy points out that firms reporting under IFRS can keep Bitcoin (BTC) on their books at cost, while U.S. GAAP requires fair-value marks. That means two companies with identical Bitcoin exposure could receive completely different index treatment based solely on where they're domiciled. Not exactly a recipe for neutral, comparable benchmarking.

Framing It as a Policy Conflict

Strategy isn't just arguing technical details—it's positioning MSCI's proposal as fundamentally at odds with U.S. federal policy. The company references Trump administration initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and broader efforts to support technology-neutral treatment of digital-asset firms.

The stakes are enormous. Strategy argues that MSCI's test would effectively lock Bitcoin-reserve companies out of roughly $15 trillion in passive investment flows. The firm warns this could "stifle innovation" at the corporate level and urges MSCI to reject what it characterizes as a misguided view of Bitcoin-treasury businesses.

MSCI began reviewing its digital-asset treasury methodology back in October. The proposed changes would hit Strategy hardest—the company is the largest public Bitcoin holder with more than 660,000 BTC, according to The Block.

Wall Street Weighs the Fallout

A final decision is expected by January 15, 2026, ahead of the February rebalance. JPMorgan (JPM) has already crunched the numbers: Strategy could face approximately $2.8 billion in passive outflows if it's removed from major benchmarks. If other index providers adopt similar rules, that total could balloon to $8.8 billion.

Strategy isn't alone in pushing back. Other large Bitcoin-treasury firms, including Strive, have voiced similar concerns about MSCI's proposal. Their suggested compromise? MSCI could offer optional benchmark versions that exclude digital-asset treasuries for clients who prefer that approach, rather than imposing a blanket rule.

Technical Picture Shows Continued Weakness

While Strategy wages this regulatory battle, its stock chart tells a grim story. MSTR continues to trade in a persistent downtrend nearly 60% below its 2025 highs, with the price stuck beneath every major exponential moving average.

Sellers remain firmly in control. Each bounce attempt fails near the 20- and 50-day averages, keeping the stock capped by short-term selling pressure. The share price is currently testing the prior support region around $185–$200. If that zone breaks, traders are eyeing a potential retest of the recent wick low near $165.

For buyers to shift momentum, MSTR would need to reclaim $212 and then challenge heavier resistance near $237. Until those levels are cleared, any rallies will likely fade inside the broader bearish structure. The technical setup suggests the market isn't giving Strategy much benefit of the doubt as it fights for its index inclusion.