Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) delivered a classic case of "good, but not quite good enough" when it reported third-quarter earnings on Tuesday. The discount retailer beat on earnings but came up just short on revenue, leaving Wall Street to figure out what it all means.
The numbers tell an interesting story. Ollie's posted adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents, edging past the analyst consensus of 73 cents. Revenue came in at $613.62 million, up a healthy 18.6% year over year, but missed the Street's expectation of $614.397 million by a hair.
Here's where it gets more interesting: despite the revenue miss, management is feeling confident. "With the better-than-expected third-quarter results and a very good start to the fourth quarter, we are raising our full-year sales and earnings outlook," said Eric van der Valk, President and CEO.
And raise they did. The company bumped its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings guidance from $3.76-$3.84 to $3.81-$3.87, compared with the analyst estimate of $3.85. On the sales side, Ollie's increased its 2025 guidance from $2.631-$2.644 billion to $2.648-$2.655 billion versus the consensus of $2.644 billion.
So what's with the analyst downgrades? Following the earnings announcement, two prominent analysts made moves on their price targets:
- UBS analyst Mark Carden maintained a Neutral rating but lowered the price target from $141 to $130
- Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith reiterated an Overweight rating but cut the price target from $150 to $140
The stock itself barely budged, falling just 0.3% to trade at $113.79 on Wednesday. It seems investors are still processing whether the raised guidance is enough to offset concerns about near-term momentum.
