Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) is about to enter harvest season. After years of placing strategic bets through streaming deals, the company is positioned to watch production ramp up across several key assets, driving robust gold equivalent ounce growth through the end of the decade.
The payoff story centers on projects including Blackwater, Copper World, and Salobo, which are expected to fuel a visible and sustained expansion beginning in the latter half of the 2020s. The beauty of this setup? It doesn't require writing new checks.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Josh Wolfson recently upgraded Wheaton Precious Metals to Outperform from Sector Perform, lifting his price forecast to $130 from $115. The upgrade follows RBC's updated precious-metals assumptions and reflects what Wolfson sees as a more attractive setup for royalty and streaming companies after a sector-wide valuation reset.
His argument is straightforward: royalty names are better insulated than traditional miners ahead of guidance season because they have limited exposure to operating and capital cost inflation. While miners sweat over rising expenses, streaming companies collect their share without shouldering the operational headaches.
Wolfson also raised his gold price outlook, forecasting average prices of $4,600 per ounce in 2026 and $5,100 per ounce in 2027. Those aren't subtle increases.
Growth on Autopilot
Under these assumptions, Wolfson expects Wheaton's slate of previously executed stream deals to translate into clear production growth starting in 2026, followed by consistent annual increases from 2027 through 2031 without requiring incremental investment. Think of it as growth on autopilot.
Against estimated 2025 production of 655,000 gold equivalent ounces, he projects more than 45% growth by 2030. He characterizes this as the strongest growth profile among large-cap royalty peers, which is a meaningful distinction in a sector where differentiation matters.
Wheaton's revenue mix also positions it to benefit from stronger silver prices, with roughly 37% of revenue tied to silver. That dual-metal exposure adds another dimension to the upside case.
The Asset Lineup
Salobo remains the cornerstone, accounting for approximately 38% of net asset value and EBITDA. Wolfson notes that operator Vale's recent commentary supports steady performance in 2026, with longer-term upside tied to a potential coarse-particle flotation initiative that could help stabilize output later in the decade.
Beyond Salobo, Wolfson highlights a broad pipeline of contributors, including Blackwater, Copper World, El Domo, Fenix, Kone, Kurmuk, Platreef, Santo Domingo and Spring Valley, as multiple projects move through development and ramp-up phases. It's a diversified portfolio of bets that are starting to mature simultaneously.
Valuation and What Could Go Wrong
Wolfson's $130 price target is based on a 2.4x risk-weighted net asset value using a long-term gold price of $3,000 per ounce, plus 24x projected 2025–2027 sustainable free cash flow, or roughly 23x EBITDA. He outlines upside to $170 at a $5,000 per ounce long-term gold price and downside to $85 at $2,500 per ounce.
Key risks include asset concentration, particularly at Salobo and Peñasquito, execution challenges during project ramp-ups, and increased competition for new streaming transactions, which could pressure future returns. Concentration risk is real when one asset accounts for 38% of your value.
WPM Price Action: Wheaton Precious Metals shares were up 2.76% at $112.29 at the time of publication on Wednesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $114.36.
