Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) delivered a classic Wall Street mixed bag on Tuesday: earnings that impressed, revenue that disappointed, and guidance that split the difference.
The sporting goods retailer posted third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.14, comfortably ahead of the $1.06 analyst consensus. But quarterly sales of $1.384 billion, while up 3.0% from the prior year, fell short of the Street's $1.403 billion expectation. It's the kind of report that makes you wonder whether to focus on the bottom-line beat or the top-line miss.
Management tried to thread the needle with its updated fiscal 2025 guidance. The company now expects adjusted EPS between $5.65 and $6.15, compared to its previous range of $5.60 to $6.30. That's a tighter range with a slightly lower ceiling but roughly in line with the $5.80 consensus estimate. On the revenue side, Academy Sports lifted its outlook to $6.025 billion to $6.200 billion from the prior $6.000 billion to $6.265 billion range, bracketing the $6.128 billion analyst estimate.
Investors seemed to appreciate the nuance, sending shares up 1.7% to $53.96 on Wednesday.
The earnings report prompted several analysts to adjust their thinking on the stock, though none got particularly excited. Three major firms raised their price targets while keeping neutral ratings firmly in place:
- B of A Securities analyst Robert Ohmes maintained a Neutral rating and bumped his price target from $55 to $58.
- Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih stuck with an Equal-Weight rating while raising her target from $51 to $59.
- UBS analyst Michael Lasser kept his Neutral rating and increased his price target from $52 to $54.
The pattern is clear: analysts see enough to justify higher valuations, but not enough to get truly bullish. It's the analyst equivalent of "it's fine" — positive momentum without overwhelming conviction. For Academy Sports, that might be exactly what the quarter deserved.
