Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is about to show us what it's got. The software giant reports fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, December 10, and Wall Street's sharpest minds have been fine-tuning their expectations.
Analysts are looking for quarterly earnings of $5.39 per share, which would represent a nice jump from the $4.81 per share Adobe posted in the same period last year. On the revenue side, the consensus estimate sits at $6.11 billion compared to $5.61 billion a year ago.
Here's something worth noting: Adobe has been pretty reliable lately when it comes to topping expectations. The company has beaten revenue estimates for three straight quarters and in nine of the last ten quarters overall. That's the kind of consistency that gets analysts' attention.
Shares closed up 1.5% at $344.32 on Tuesday, perhaps as investors positioned themselves ahead of the report.
What the Most Accurate Analysts Are Saying
The interesting part is watching how Wall Street's best forecasters have been adjusting their views. These aren't just any analysts—these are the ones with proven track records of getting it right.
Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss, who boasts the highest accuracy rate at 74%, made the boldest move back in September. He downgraded Adobe from Overweight to Equal-Weight and slashed his price target from $520 to $450. When your most accurate analyst pumps the brakes, people pay attention.
More recently, Citigroup's Tyler Radke maintained a Neutral stance but trimmed his target from $400 to $366 on December 4. Radke has a 69% accuracy rate, so he's no slouch either.
Not everyone's getting more cautious though. DA Davidson's Gil Luria, with a 66% accuracy rate, maintained his Buy rating and kept his ambitious $500 price target intact on November 20. That's nearly 45% above where the stock closed Tuesday.
Mizuho's Gregg Moskowitz (68% accuracy) kept his Outperform rating but lowered his target from $410 to $390 on November 20. Wells Fargo's Michael Turrin (61% accuracy) also stayed Overweight but cut his target from $470 to $420 the same day.
The pattern here? Most analysts remain optimistic on the stock itself, but they're tempering their price expectations. Whether that's about valuation, near-term headwinds, or just getting more realistic ahead of earnings, Wednesday's report should give us some answers.
