The autonomous vehicle race is heating up, and investor Ross Gerber thinks Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) should be worried. The co-founder of investment firm Gerber Kawasaki made waves on Tuesday with a bold declaration about Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG)'s self-driving service Waymo.

The Math Behind Gerber's Warning

Gerber took to X to break down Waymo's impressive numbers. The autonomous cab service has hit 450,000 weekly rides, and Gerber did some back-of-the-envelope math that caught attention. With an average ride revenue around $10 and a fleet of 2,500 cars, each vehicle is generating roughly $200 to $250 per day.

That adds up to more than $200 million in annual revenue, and it's growing fast. Gerber's conclusion? "Uber is cooked."

This isn't Gerber's first rodeo with this prediction. He's been sounding the alarm for a while now, previously pointing out that Waymo captured about 10% market share in San Francisco through its app alone after expanding into the city. For a newcomer competing against an established giant like Uber, that's a pretty impressive foothold.

Uber's Take on the Autonomous Future

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi isn't panicking, though. He's painted a different picture of the future: one where human drivers and autonomous vehicles coexist on the platform. It's a hedged bet that acknowledges the technology's potential without betting the entire company on it happening overnight.

That makes sense when you consider the practical realities. Autonomous vehicles still face regulatory hurdles, weather limitations, and edge cases that human drivers handle without thinking. A hybrid model gives Uber flexibility as the technology matures.

Tesla Joins the Conversation

Meanwhile, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk continues making his own ambitious claims. He's said Tesla's robotaxi operations in Austin will go driverless by the end of this year. That timeline depends heavily on Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology, which the company is also planning to expand into Europe next year.

The robotaxi space is getting crowded, with different approaches competing for dominance. Waymo uses purpose-built vehicles with extensive sensor arrays, while Tesla relies on cameras and its FSD software. Uber, for its part, is keeping its options open by partnering with multiple autonomous vehicle providers rather than building its own.

What This Means for Investors

The numbers Gerber cited are worth paying attention to. If Waymo can generate $200 million annually at this relatively early stage, the scalability becomes interesting. The question is whether autonomous vehicles will complement traditional ride-hailing or eventually replace it entirely.

For now, all three companies are approaching the problem differently, and the market will ultimately decide which strategy works best. What's clear is that the ride-hailing industry is facing its biggest transformation since Uber first disrupted the taxi business over a decade ago.

Price Action: GOOGL climbed 1.07% to close at $317.08, then slipped 0.24% in after-hours trading to $316.32, according to market data.