Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has a problem that most companies would kill for: it keeps beating Wall Street's expectations. The catch? Investors keep selling the stock anyway. When Adobe reports fourth-quarter results Wednesday after the closing bell, the software giant will be trying to break a frustrating pattern.

Here's what the numbers look like, what analysts are saying, and why this earnings report might actually matter for the stock price.

The Numbers Everyone's Watching

Wall Street expects Adobe to report fourth-quarter revenue of $6.11 billion, which would mark the first time the company crosses the $6 billion threshold in a single quarter. That represents solid growth from $5.61 billion in the same quarter last year.

Adobe's track record on revenue beats is impressive. The company has exceeded analyst estimates for three consecutive quarters and in nine of the last 10 quarters overall. Last quarter, Adobe set a record with $5.99 billion in revenue, and analysts believe that record won't stand for long.

On the earnings front, analysts are modeling $5.39 per share, up from $4.81 in last year's fourth quarter. Adobe has matched its revenue consistency here too, beating earnings estimates for three straight quarters and nine of the last 10.

What the Analysts Are Thinking

JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy maintains an Overweight rating with a $520 price target, and his recent customer interviews paint an interesting picture. Companies aren't just keeping their Adobe subscriptions—they're cutting costs elsewhere to protect their Adobe spending and in some cases increasing it.

"We believe this feedback helps provide a differentiated, on-the-ground view of trends that we expect to drive fundamentals for Adobe over the next 12-18 months," Murphy wrote in his investor note.

The interviews covered customer spending patterns, AI adoption, consolidation trends, and digital modernization efforts. Murphy's takeaway? "The feedback is healthier than investors likely appreciate."

He also notes that Adobe typically gives conservative guidance at the start of fiscal years, which could set up positive surprises down the road.

"We view ADBE shares as materially undervalued while understanding that investors have not yet identified a turning point for the application software complex," Murphy said.

Customer feedback on Adobe's Firefly AI platform has been particularly positive, according to Murphy's research. He sees "incremental AI monetization opportunities over time" as a key growth driver.

Other analysts have been less optimistic recently, with several lowering their price targets:

• Stifel: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $480 to $450
• Citigroup: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $400 to $366
• DA Davidson: Maintained Buy rating, with price target of $500
• Mizuho: Maintained Outperform rating, lowered price target from $410 to $390
• Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $470 to $420

The Semrush Factor

This earnings report arrives on the heels of Adobe's announcement that it will acquire SEMrush Holdings Inc. (SEMR) for $1.9 billion in equity value. The deal is designed to boost Adobe's capabilities in generative engine optimization, helping brands navigate the AI-driven search landscape.

Semrush reported 33% year-over-year recurring revenue growth in its enterprise segment last quarter. Murphy previously noted that the acquisition could give Adobe's customers key advantages while allowing Adobe to unlock enterprise scale that Semrush couldn't achieve independently. Semrush has historically focused on smaller customers but has been making progress with enterprise clients, where Adobe's reach could accelerate growth.

AI Momentum and Market Presence

Adobe continues pushing deeper into AI territory, recently announcing a partnership with PIF-backed HUMAIN for AI solutions in Saudi Arabia. Investors will be listening closely for commentary on how the company's AI product suite is performing and what customers are saying about adoption rates.

Breaking the Curse

Here's the confounding part: Adobe has consistently delivered solid results, but the stock has suffered an unfortunate post-earnings pattern. Before the third quarter, Adobe shares had declined after eight of the last nine earnings reports.

The third-quarter results seemed to break the streak initially. Shares closed at $350.55 on September 11 ahead of earnings, then opened at $361.10 the next day. But the rally fizzled—shares closed that day at $349.36, right back where they started.

The question Wednesday evening is whether Adobe can finally deliver results and guidance strong enough to reverse this trend, or if investors will hit the sell button once again despite another likely beat.

ADBE Price Action: Adobe stock traded up 1.9% to $345.63 on Tuesday, within its 52-week range of $311.58 to $552.83. Shares are down 21.6% year-to-date in 2025.