Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) reports its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday, and the numbers should tell an interesting story about how skiers are spending this season.
The big question, according to BofA Securities analyst Shaun Kelley, is whether more interest in skiing is actually translating into more revenue. His take: probably not yet.
Traffic Up, Spending Down
Kelley, who maintains a Neutral rating and $165 price target on Vail, expects EpicPass unit sales improved slightly from last quarter thanks to acceleration in web traffic data. The problem? Skiers appear to be trading down to cheaper, less frequent passes during the most recent selling period, which means dollar growth likely stayed flat despite the uptick in interest.
Don't expect management to revise full-year guidance at this point in the season. It's early days, and Inntopia data through October 31 shows a weaker start but projects a strong finish to the year.
Price Action: Vail Resorts shares gained 0.83% to $145.14 at Tuesday's close.
