AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is gearing up to release its first-quarter earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, December 9, and Wall Street's top forecasters have been busy recalibrating their expectations.
The consensus among analysts is for earnings of $32.51 per share, essentially flat compared to the $32.52 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue expectations tell a more optimistic story, with analysts projecting $4.64 billion for the quarter, up from $4.28 billion a year ago.
These estimates come on the heels of a mixed fourth quarter for the auto parts retailer. The company posted solid sales growth of 6.9%, but profitability took a hit. Operating profit fell 7.8% to $1.2 billion, and earnings per share declined 5.6% to $48.71 from $51.58 in the prior-year period. The market wasn't thrilled—shares dropped 1.5% on Monday to close at $3,766.96.
What the Top Analysts Are Saying
Several prominent Wall Street analysts with strong track records have weighed in recently. Here's the breakdown:
Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane made the most notable move, upgrading AutoZone from Neutral to Buy on December 5, though she slightly reduced her price target from $4,090 to $4,262. McShane's accuracy rate stands at 67%.
BMO Capital analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin kept his Outperform rating in September while bumping his price target significantly from $4,100 to $4,600. His accuracy rate is 64%.
Truist Securities analyst Scot Ciccarelli maintained a Buy rating but made a minor adjustment to his price target, lowering it from $4,504 to $4,499 on September 24. Ciccarelli boasts a 71% accuracy rate.
Raymond James analyst Bobby Griffin remains the most bullish, maintaining a Strong Buy rating even after trimming his price target from $4,900 to $4,800. Griffin also has a 71% accuracy rate.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman stayed Overweight on the stock and raised his price target from $4,000 to $4,700 in late September. Gutman's accuracy rate is 68%.
The pattern here is interesting—most analysts are holding firm on their positive ratings despite the recent earnings pressure and modest price target adjustments. It seems Wall Street still believes in AutoZone's long-term story, even if near-term results have been a bit bumpy.
