Munster Places His Bet

When you're picking horses in the Magnificent Seven race, you want someone who's been right before. Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Management, accurately predicted Apple's strong iPhone sales before the company reported fourth-quarter results. Now he's doubling down with a bold call: Apple Inc. (AAPL) will be the top-performing Magnificent Seven stock over the next six months.

"My take: $AAPL will be the top-performing Mag 7 stock over the next six months, driven by better-than-expected iPhone results and multiple expansion ahead of the new Siri, which should be out around April," Munster posted on X this Monday.

It's an interesting pick, considering Apple is currently one of the weaker performers among its mega-cap peers in 2025. But zoom out to six months, and Apple's actually been crushing it. Here's where the Magnificent Seven stocks stand:

• Apple (AAPL): +37.5% six months, +13.6% YTD
• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): +4.5% six months, +3% YTD
• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): +77.3% six months, +64.8% YTD
• Meta Platforms (META): -3.8% six months, +11.5% YTD
• Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): +3.7% six months, +17.1% YTD
• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): +29.3% six months, +33.3% YTD
• Tesla Inc (TSLA): +41.9% six months, +15.5% YTD

Munster's bullish thesis rests on two pillars: the iPhone and Siri. Let's break down why he thinks these will drive Apple stock higher.

The iPhone Momentum Story

Following Apple's fourth-quarter earnings, Munster wrote that the iPhone was "on a roll," even though some Wall Street analysts weren't entirely impressed. The technology giant reported records in the fourth quarter and guided for more records in the first quarter, with growth expectations around 12%.

Here's the thing that caught Munster's attention: the iPhone 17 cycle is showing strong demand in both North America and China, two critical markets for Apple. After December, the iPhone will have averaged 10% growth over each of the past three quarters. Compare that to a 0.5% decline over the two years prior, and you can see why Munster believes something fundamental has shifted.

"The iPhone 17 cycle is off to a better-than-expected start," Munster noted, predicting this momentum should carry well into 2026.

The Siri Wild Card

If the iPhone is the steady foundation of Munster's thesis, Siri is the catalyst that could send the stock higher. In an October blog post, Munster predicted that Apple investors will shift their focus from iPhone sales to Siri capabilities in the coming months.

"I don't know how it will perform, but I expect anticipation of its arrival to be a positive for AAPL's multiple," Munster wrote.

Apple has been building anticipation for the revamped Siri since its developer conference in June. This matters because some investors and consumers have been underwhelmed by Apple's initial AI features. They're expecting more, and Apple has set the bar high. The company has essentially promised that Siri will become a truly intelligent digital assistant that can contextualize personal data and actually be useful.

"Taking a step back, there's a lot riding on the new Siri, because Apple set that expectation. The company remains the gold standard for consumer tech quality, and when Apple signals that quality will be there, investors should expect just that," Munster said.

The timeline is somewhat murky. Some experts predict a March launch, while Apple has only committed to "next year" in 2026. Munster is betting on April, though he notes that at the latest, we should see something at Apple's developer conference in June.

"Either way, we should see something by the latest at WWDC in June. That gives investors more than five months to dream about how good it will be," he wrote.

If Apple delivers a Siri that lives up to the hype, Munster believes it would represent the company's "biggest product leap forward since the iPhone." That's not a small claim.

What the Market Says

Apple shares closed Monday down 0.32% at $277.89, trading within a 52-week range of $169.21 to $288.61. The stock is up nearly 11% year-to-date in 2025.

Whether Munster's prediction proves accurate depends on two things: whether iPhone sales continue their strong trajectory, and whether the new Siri delivers on Apple's promises. Given his track record of correctly predicting the iPhone strength last quarter, investors are paying attention to this call. The next six months will tell us if he's right again.