Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after Monday's closing bell, and Wall Street is watching to see if the luxury homebuilder can maintain its momentum from a solid third quarter.
The Street is looking for earnings of $4.88 per share, which would represent a nice bump from the $4.63 posted in last year's fourth quarter. Revenue expectations are essentially flat at $3.32 billion compared to $3.33 billion a year ago.
The company has recent history on its side. Back on August 19, Toll Brothers delivered a Q3 beat on both lines, posting revenue of $2.95 billion against estimates of $2.85 billion. Earnings came in at $3.73 per share, topping the $3.59 consensus.
Shares dipped 1.5% Friday to close at $138.94, and analysts have been busy adjusting their positions heading into the print.
What the Sharp Analysts Are Saying
Here's what the analysts with the strongest track records have been telling clients lately:
JP Morgan's Michael Rehaut made the boldest recent move, upgrading Toll Brothers from Neutral to Overweight on December 4 with a $161 price target. Rehaut carries a 69% accuracy rate.
B of A Securities analyst Rafe Jadrosich kept his Buy rating on October 10 but trimmed his target from $155 to $150. His accuracy rate sits at 67%.
Evercore ISI Group's Stephen Kim moved the other direction, downgrading from Outperform to In-Line on October 7 and lowering his target from $169 to $160. Kim also has a 67% accuracy rate.
Citigroup's Anthony Pettinari stayed Neutral on October 1 but raised his price target from $138 to $147. With a 74% accuracy rate, Pettinari sees measured upside from current levels.
Wedbush's Jay McCanless holds the highest accuracy rate in this group at 86%, and he's maintaining his Outperform rating with a $165 price target set on September 5.
The range of opinions reflects the broader uncertainty in housing stocks as mortgage rates and affordability concerns continue to shape the market. Monday's earnings will give us a clearer picture of how Toll Brothers is navigating these headwinds.
