When the IPO Window Slams Shut, Companies Wait for It to Reopen

The IPO market has been on quite a ride lately, and New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin has a front-row seat to all the chaos. Speaking on Friday, she painted a picture of pent-up demand ready to burst through the gates in early 2026.

The year started with real momentum, Martin explained in her TBPN interview, but then reality intervened. Events surrounding "Liberation Day" caused the market to briefly shut down, followed by a temporary government shutdown that also halted trading. When companies are ready to go public and the market suddenly closes for business, they don't just shrug and move on. They wait.

"The year was going really well," Martin said, before those disruptions hit. Now? "A variety of our deals have now pushed into January. It's going to be a busy January. We have a really busy Q1."

The Political Calendar Matters More Than You Think

But here's the catch: that early 2026 surge might not carry through the entire year. Martin pointed to the midterm elections as a likely pressure point that could temporarily close the IPO window again.

Her reasoning makes sense. Companies planning to go public want predictability, and election periods are anything but predictable. Policy shifts, regulatory changes, market volatility—all of it creates uncertainty that boards and bankers would rather avoid.

"Anytime you have a large group of elections or a monumental election… you're not gonna want to go just before because you just don't know what's going to happen around that election period," Martin explained.

The Billion-Dollar Names Waiting in the Wings

So who's actually planning to go public? Some pretty significant players, as it turns out.

Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude chatbot, is reportedly gearing up for a possible 2026 IPO. The company is backed by heavy hitters including Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), which gives you a sense of the capital and credibility already behind it.

Then there's Microsoft Corp (MSFT)-backed OpenAI, which is laying the groundwork for what could become one of the largest IPOs in history. We're talking about a potential $1 trillion valuation here. The company could file with securities regulators as early as the second half of 2026, putting it in direct competition with Anthropic for investor attention and market timing.

And let's not forget Elon Musk's SpaceX, which has reportedly told investors it's aiming for a full-company IPO—including Starlink—in late 2026. The company continues to conduct share sales that could value it at $800 billion, making it one of the most anticipated public offerings in recent memory.

The Bigger Picture

What Martin is describing is essentially a traffic jam at the IPO on-ramp. Companies got ready to merge onto the public markets highway, but unexpected roadblocks forced them to wait. Now they're all queued up for early 2026, which should make for an interesting few months.

The question is whether that window stays open long enough for everyone to get through, or whether political uncertainty later in the year creates another pause. For companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, timing could mean the difference between a smooth debut and having to wait even longer.

For now, the NYSE is preparing for what Martin calls a "really busy Q1." If she's right, early 2026 could reshape the public markets landscape in ways we haven't seen in years.