Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is set to report third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, December 4, and Wall Street's sharpest analysts have been busy tweaking their forecasts ahead of the print.
The consensus expectation? Analysts are looking for earnings of $4.60 per share from the Bolingbrook, Illinois-based beauty retailer, which would represent a decline from the $5.14 per share reported in the same quarter last year. On the revenue side, the Street expects $2.7 billion, up from $2.53 billion a year earlier, according to market data.
So here's the setup: revenue growth with earnings compression. It's a combination that usually makes investors squirm a bit, and it helps explain why analysts with strong track records have been recalibrating their views.
What the Most Accurate Analysts Are Saying
Let's break down how the analysts with the best accuracy ratings have positioned themselves recently:
JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers, who maintains a 74% accuracy rate, kept his Overweight rating on December 1 while nudging his price target up from $600 to $606. That's cautious optimism if we've ever seen it.
Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey, sporting a 63% accuracy rate, also maintained an Outperform rating with a $610 price target on December 1. She's holding steady in bullish territory.
Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow stands out as the bear in this group. With a 71% accuracy rate, he maintained his Underweight rating on October 16, though he did raise his price target from $425 to $450. Even skeptics are acknowledging some upside, apparently.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Susan Anderson, with a 61% accuracy rate, maintained a Buy rating and lifted her price target from $650 to $653 on October 10. She's among the most optimistic of the bunch.
Finally, Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih, working with a 68% accuracy rate, maintained an Overweight rating and raised her price target from $589 to $617 on September 2.
The Bigger Picture
In mid-October, Ulta named Christopher DelOrefice as chief financial officer, a leadership move that could signal strategic shifts ahead. Meanwhile, shares closed Wednesday at $544.52, down 0.6% on the day.
The beauty retail space has been navigating a tricky environment lately, balancing consumer spending pressures with shifting shopping habits. Thursday's earnings call should provide more color on how Ulta is managing those headwinds.
