Here's the thing about Tesla Inc. (TSLA): everyone knows autonomous vehicles are coming. The question is when they'll actually arrive without a human babysitter in the driver's seat. According to Gary Black, managing director at The Future Fund LLC, that moment is the real catalyst investors should be watching.

The Safety Monitor Problem

Black laid out his thesis on X this week, and it's pretty straightforward. Tesla has been lagging behind the broader market this year despite being tantalizingly close to achieving unsupervised autonomy. The company is up just 6.29% year-to-date, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has climbed 16.29% and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) has surged 21.67%. Even the other Magnificent Seven stocks have left Tesla in the dust.

So what's missing? According to Black, it's simple: "The major catalyst for TSLA is now removal of safety monitors in all Robotaxis." That move would signal that the company is ready to genuinely scale up its autonomous cab operations, not just run limited pilots with nervous employees riding shotgun.

The timing matters because Elon Musk recently announced that Tesla is targeting driverless operations in Austin by the end of this year. Musk also said the company plans to double the number of Robotaxis operating in the city. Without safety operators, those aren't just test vehicles anymore. They're an actual business.

FSD Is Actually Getting Better

Black isn't just speculating about future possibilities. He's been tracking the improvements in Tesla's Full Self-Driving system, particularly the v14 update. The investor previously praised the release as a significant leap forward from earlier versions, noting that FSD Critical Disengagements have declined, which is exactly the kind of metric you want trending in the right direction.

Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, has also acknowledged that the FSD system has improved, though he's pointed out ongoing mapping issues with the technology. Progress, but not perfection.

European Expansion on the Horizon

Meanwhile, Tesla is laying groundwork for international expansion. The company is offering free Supervised FSD rides to customers in multiple European countries including Germany, France, and Italy through the end of the year. This is part of a broader push to roll out the technology across Europe in February 2026.

It's a smart move. Getting real-world data from European roads and building customer familiarity before the official launch could smooth regulatory approval and public acceptance. But again, the supervised part is key. Until those safety operators can exit the vehicle, Tesla's Robotaxi ambitions remain more promise than product.

Price Action: TSLA slipped 0.21% to $429.24 at market close on Tuesday, then declined another 0.32% to $427.85 in after-hours trading.