American shoppers showed up in force for the holiday shopping kickoff, and the numbers tell a story that goes beyond just strong spending. It's the surprising shifts in what people are actually buying that could drive some interesting stock moves through December.
If the early data from Black Friday and Cyber Monday proves sustainable, several e-commerce companies might be sitting on meaningful upside this month. The catalysts? Changing consumer habits, breakout growth in unexpected retail categories, and a massive surge in AI-powered shopping tools.
The Numbers Behind This Holiday Season
U.S. online sales during the 2025 Black Friday weekend hit record territory. Total online spending over Cyber Week came in at approximately $44.2 billion, representing a 7.7% jump from last year's haul.
Online sales for Thanksgiving and Black Friday combined reached about $18 billion. To put that in perspective, that's roughly double the $9 billion recorded during October Big Deal Days. Cyber Monday alone was expected to generate $14.2 billion in sales, marking a 6.3% year-over-year increase.
Mobile represented a massive 53% of Black Friday sales, underscoring how completely shopping has shifted to smartphones. For the full November shopping window, Adobe measured $123 billion in online spending, up 7.2% year-over-year.
In a Tuesday note to clients, Bank of America Research analyst Michael McGovern highlighted two standout categories winning the early holiday e-commerce battle. He pointed out that "specific categories seem particularly strong, including Home Goods and Pet Care."
Two Surprising Category Winners
In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) president Harley Finkelstein noted an interesting shift. Last year, consumers focused on "getting outside." This year? "Items for the Home is the winner," he said.
McGovern thinks this trend bodes well for Wayfair Inc. (W), which has already surged more than 120% this year. Bank of America maintains a $130 price target on the stock, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.
The pet care sector is experiencing its own boom. Salesforce noted "continued demand for pet health care," driven by Millennials and Gen Z entering new life stages where pets become a bigger priority.
McGovern believes this trend benefits Chewy Inc. (CHWY). While the stock is flat for the year, Bank of America has set a 12-month price target of $46, representing about 38% upside from current prices.
AI Shopping Tools Are Having a Moment
Here's where things get really interesting. Adobe Analytics reported that AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites jumped 805% year-over-year. Desktop represented 74% of that traffic, with mobile making up the remaining 26%.
Salesforce estimated that about $3 billion of Black Friday's $18 billion in online spending was influenced by Agentic AI, equal to roughly 17% of the day's total. That's a significant chunk of commerce being shaped by AI tools.
Finkelstein also mentioned that AI-driven shopping on Shopify is up about six times year-over-year. Consumers mostly used AI tools for price checks and shipping comparisons—practical stuff that actually helps them make buying decisions.
"Strong growth in AI-based shopping could be positive for Etsy Inc. (ETSY)" McGovern noted. Adobe highlighted that shoppers who arrived through large language models were 38% more likely to complete a purchase than other traffic sources. That conversion advantage matters.
McGovern also flagged Etsy's daily active users, which accelerated 19 percentage points in November to 32% growth, according to Sensor Tower. Despite this momentum, Etsy shares are up only 2.5% this year. Bank of America maintains a $73 price target, implying 35% upside from current prices.
Finally, the investment bank believes the strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending also supports eBay Inc. (EBAY). Bank of America's price target sits at $100, representing about 22% upside from current levels.
