Bitcoin (BTC) clawed its way back above $91,000 on Tuesday, and the timing tells an interesting story. The move came alongside a notable pickup in ETF activity and what appears to be a squeeze on short positions that added fuel to the rally.
Crypto analyst Kevin shared his take on Monday via X, pointing out that Bitcoin's current volatility fits the pattern of a late-stage correction. We're about 127 days into this pullback, and according to Kevin, the wild price swings we're seeing now typically show up right before a proper bottom forms.
He's expecting that bottom to materialize within the next few weeks, followed by what he calls a "meaningful counter-trend rally." But here's where it gets interesting: Kevin pushed back against traders fixating on quantitative tightening as the main obstacle. Instead, he argues the real pressure has come from global bond markets reacting to potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.
Those macro forces have triggered carry-trade stress and risk-off sentiment across markets. Kevin thinks this pressure should start easing by mid-to-late December once central banks provide fresh guidance. For now, he's watching the upcoming 3-day candle close and wants to see Bitcoin hold above $91,000. His advice? Patience and emotional discipline.
The sentiment data from Santiment shows how quickly the mood shifted. Bitcoin's jump to $91,000 flipped crowd expectations from bearish to optimistic almost instantly, which often signals choppy trading ahead.
But the ETF story is where things get really compelling. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noted that Bitcoin spiked roughly 6% right at the U.S. market open. This was the first trading session after Vanguard lifted its ban on Bitcoin ETF trading, suggesting some pent-up demand from Vanguard's typically conservative client base.
Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT posted nearly $1 billion in volume within the first 30 minutes of trading. That's not background noise.
If Kevin's timeline holds and Bitcoin does find a bottom in the coming weeks, the combination of renewed ETF participation and stabilizing macro conditions could set up an interesting setup for the next leg higher.
