If you're wondering who really won Black Friday this year, the answer might be algorithms. Online sales jumped 9% year-over-year on Black Friday and 5% on Thanksgiving, according to Adobe Analytics data highlighted in a Monday note from Bank of America Research analyst Justin Post. And the real story? AI shopping assistants showed up in a big way.
"Early holiday data indicates Online trends are solid vs expectations, and much better than brick-and-mortar as Online shift continues," Post wrote. Adobe reported that both results slightly exceeded its initial forecasts and topped its 5% full-season outlook for November and December.
The AI Shopping Revolution Arrives
Here's where things get interesting. Adobe estimates that AI-related traffic absolutely exploded, surging 805% year-over-year. New tools like Amazon's Rufus chatbot and ChatGPT helped consumers navigate deals and find the best prices without setting foot in a crowded mall.
According to a Bankinter analysis team, AI has become a "driving force for sales." It makes sense when you think about it—why fight crowds when a chatbot can surface the best TV deal in seconds?
Not everyone's seeing the same picture, though. Salesforce, which tracks digital spending including groceries, reported U.S. online sales climbed just 3% on Black Friday. That's actually slower than the 7% growth the firm recorded last year. Meanwhile, Mastercard SpendingPulse showed a robust 10.4% e-commerce jump. Different methodologies, different stories.
Still, Bank of America says the early data is "constructive for the eCommerce group." The bank highlighted two top picks: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is well-positioned to capture share through its AI integration with Rufus, along with strong price comparability and faster delivery speeds. Wayfair Inc. (W) also made the list, with the company accelerating share gains through improvements in its CastleGate fulfillment system and Loyalty Program.
Discounts Felt Different This Year
Adobe estimated discounts in the 19% to 30% range, roughly the same as 2024. The steepest price cuts hit toys, electronics and apparel—the usual suspects.
But here's the catch: those discounts may not have felt as generous as last year. Higher product costs driven by inflation and tariffs meant that even with the same percentage off, shoppers were paying more in absolute dollars.
The Salesforce data backs this up. Average selling prices increased 7% year-over-year on Black Friday. Meanwhile, order volumes dropped 1%, and the number of items per transaction fell 2%. People bought less stuff, and what they did buy cost more.
Bank of America expects "modest tariff-related pressure on gross margins" going forward, which is analyst-speak for "retailers are feeling the squeeze."
Among specialty retailers, Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) and Old Navy offered slightly higher or consistent discounts versus last year. However, global brands like Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) and Polo Factory actually reduced promotional activity.
Physical Stores Continue Their Slow Fade
Not really much of a comeback story here. In-store foot traffic continued its slide, with RetailNext data showing a 3.6% year-over-year drop on Black Friday. That follows a 3.2% decline last year.
Mastercard SpendingPulse painted a slightly rosier picture for physical retailers, showing offline sales up 2% from last year's 1% growth. But let's be honest—that's not exactly a victory lap.
Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson noted that "tariff-induced price increases were introduced by many retailers."
"Significant uncertainty remains about the consumers' ability to absorb these higher prices, but Santa always comes," she added.
A Structural Shift in Retail
The early Black Friday results reveal something bigger than just one weekend of shopping. Digital commerce continues to outpace brick-and-mortar, and AI is fundamentally reshaping how people shop. It's not just about convenience anymore—it's about personalization, price transparency, and surfacing value in ways that physical stores simply can't match.
As tariff-induced price increases challenge retailers heading into the holiday season, the ability to leverage technology to help shoppers find deals is becoming a genuine competitive advantage.
The battle for holiday dollars is far from over, but the online channel is clearly winning the war for convenience, personalization and price transparency. And this year, AI showed up as a powerful new weapon in that fight.
