Bitcoin (BTC) breaking below $90,000 on Monday has crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen reaching for his history books, and what he's found isn't exactly reassuring for the bulls.
The 2019 Comparison
In a podcast published on Sunday, Cowen laid out how Bitcoin's current downturn looks remarkably like the 2019 macro setup. Back then, BTC kept bleeding for months even after the Federal Reserve shifted from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. The liquidity didn't show up on schedule, and neither did the rally.
Cowen's base case mirrors that earlier cycle pretty closely:
- Six months of consolidation
- Three straight red monthly closes (October through December)
- A relief rally toward the 200-day moving average in early 2026
- Followed by a final leg down into mid-2026
Altcoins might have it worse. Cowen expects one last spike in Bitcoin dominance as traders waiting for a QE-driven rescue finally give up, similar to the broad altcoin weakness seen in late 2019.
While he acknowledges a slim chance of new all-time highs, Cowen points to breakdowns in key indicators like the weekly RSI as classic bear-market signals. He adds that Bitcoin's ROI curve still aligns with previous cycle trajectories.
The Liquidity Lag
Here's the thing about quantitative tightening ending: it doesn't mean immediate liquidity expansion. Cowen emphasized that in 2019, QT ended in July, but the Fed's balance sheet didn't actually start growing until September. Bitcoin kept sliding in the meantime.
He expects a similar lag now, potentially stretching well into 2026, reinforcing the idea that the current decline could be the opening phase of a larger macro downturn.
Still, Cowen frames this as opportunity rather than disaster. If the pattern holds, he believes investors will eventually look back at 2025–2026 as a textbook bear-market window—painful, sure, but ultimately lucrative for those who waited patiently.
