Sometimes the market just decides to take a breather, and Monday morning was one of those times. U.S. stock futures slipped lower despite what should have been encouraging news: Black Friday online sales jumped 9.4% from last year, easing worries about the first potential sales decline in four years. But markets were having none of it, pulling back after a five-session winning streak that carried through the Thanksgiving weekend.
It's the kind of setup that makes you wonder what investors are thinking. Strong holiday shopping data typically gets people excited, especially when consumer sentiment has been shaky. Yet here we are, with futures pointing lower across the board.
The week ahead brings a fresh batch of earnings reports from some heavyweight tech names. Investors are waiting on results from MongoDB Inc. (MDB), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD), and Salesforce Inc. (CRM), among others. After the long holiday weekend, these reports could provide the catalyst markets need to pick a direction.
Bond Yields and Fed Expectations
Over in the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.04%, while the two-year bond held at 3.49%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in an 87.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December meeting. That's pretty substantial odds, suggesting investors are fairly confident the Fed will ease up on its restrictive policy stance.
Futures Paint a Downbeat Picture
Monday morning's futures action wasn't pretty if you were hoping for continued momentum. The Dow Jones futures were down 0.40%, while the S&P 500 futures dropped 0.53%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures took the biggest hit, falling 0.66%. Small-cap stocks, tracked by the Russell 2000, declined 0.77%.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, were both lower in premarket trading. The SPY dropped 0.63% to $679.22, while the QQQ fell 0.78% to $614.42, according to market data.
What's Moving in Individual Stocks
NVIDIA Faces Competition Concerns
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) shares slipped 1.16% in premarket trading, as concerns mounted about rising competition in the GPU space. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Google's parent company, recently unveiled its Ironwood AI tensor processing units (TPUs), and there's talk of a potential partnership with Meta Platforms Inc. (META). That's the kind of news that makes NVIDIA investors a bit nervous, given how dominant the company has been in AI chips.
Still, NVIDIA's fundamentals remain strong. The stock scores high on momentum, growth, and quality metrics, with a favorable price trend over the long term.
NIO Struggles Despite Strong Deliveries
Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio Inc. (NIO) dropped 4% in premarket trading, which seems harsh considering the company posted record vehicle deliveries and reduced losses in its third-quarter results last week. Sometimes the market fixates on concerns beyond the quarterly numbers—whether it's China's economic challenges or broader EV sector worries.
The stock does score high on momentum metrics, with a favorable long-term price trend, so it's not all doom and gloom.
Intel Gives Back Some Gains
Intel Corp. (INTC) shares fell 1.11% premarket after surging 10% on Friday. The Friday rally came after analysts suggested Intel could become a foundry supplier for some of Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) M-series processors. That would be a significant win for Intel's struggling foundry business, but investors seem to be taking profits after the big Friday pop.
Intel scores high on momentum, with favorable price trends across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.
Bitmine Pulls Back After Ethereum Purchase
Bitcoin mining company Bitmine Immersion Technologies American Inc. (BMNR) dropped 6.39% premarket, giving back some of Friday's 4.35% gain. The company announced a major new Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) purchase last week, but that wasn't enough to sustain momentum.
The stock shows a poor price trend in the short and medium terms, though it has a more favorable setup over the long run.
MongoDB Ahead of Earnings
MongoDB Inc. (MDB) shares dipped 0.47% premarket ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings report scheduled for Monday evening after markets close. Database platform companies have been in focus as AI infrastructure spending continues, so investors will be watching closely for guidance.
The stock scores high on momentum and growth, with favorable price trends across all timeframes.
How Friday's Session Finished
Friday's trading session was decidedly positive, with nearly all S&P 500 sectors finishing in the green. Only health care lagged. Energy, information technology, communications, and financial services led the gains.
The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.65% to close at 23,365.69. The S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 6,849.09, while the Dow Jones added 0.61% to reach 47,716.42. The Russell 2000 gained 0.58%, closing at 2,500.43.
What the Analysts Are Saying
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, offered an interesting historical perspective on the first trading day of December. He pointed out that whenever the S&P 500 has been up more than 10% year-to-date heading into the final two months of the year, the index has finished those last two months in positive territory all 16 times on record.
On Sunday, Detrick posted on X that he still believes Santa is "coming to town in December," hinting at expectations for a strong finish to the year. That kind of seasonal optimism is backed by solid historical precedent, at least according to the data.
Economic Calendar Empty Monday
No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, giving markets a breather on that front. The focus will be squarely on corporate earnings and individual stock movements.
Commodities and Crypto Update
Crude oil futures climbed 1.69% in early New York trading, holding around $59.53 a barrel. That's a decent jump, though oil remains well off its highs from earlier in the year.
Gold Spot rose 0.80% to hover around $4,253.07 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $4,381.60 per ounce, so it's not far from potentially breaking that ceiling. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.19% at the 99.26521 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 4.20% lower at $86,640.39 per coin. That's a significant single-day drop for the cryptocurrency, which has been volatile throughout 2024.
Global Markets Mixed
Asian markets delivered a mixed performance on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225, India's Nifty 50, and Australia's ASX 200 all dropped, while China's Shenzhen and Shanghai exchanges managed to finish in the green. European markets also had a similarly mixed start to the day, with no clear directional conviction.
It's the kind of global market setup that suggests investors everywhere are taking a wait-and-see approach as December kicks off.
