Tariffs have a way of souring relationships, and the latest Japanese government polling shows exactly that. Japanese public sentiment toward the United States has taken a notable hit after President Donald Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from Japan, even though most people still think the bilateral relationship is fundamentally sound.

A Decade of Goodwill, Suddenly Eroding

The numbers tell the story. A Cabinet Office Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy found that 70.8% of respondents now describe Japan-U.S. relations as "good" or "quite good"—down a significant 14.7 percentage points from 85.5% just a year earlier. That's the lowest reading since 2008, back during the financial crisis.

For context, positive views had been cruising in the mid-80% to low-90% range throughout much of the past decade. The share of Japanese who "feel strong affinity" or "feel some affinity" toward the United States also slipped to 77.0%, dropping 7.9 points from the prior year, according to preliminary figures. The Cabinet Office conducted the mail survey from late September to early November, receiving valid responses from about 1,600 adults.

Tariffs and Trade Tension

The timing here isn't exactly mysterious. The poll period overlapped with months of tense trade negotiations and Trump's tariff hikes on Japanese autos, steel, and other goods. A Reuters survey from this summer found that 75% of Japanese companies viewed a subsequent tariff deal—which reduced planned U.S. duties on Japanese imports to 15% instead of 25%—as at least somewhat favorable, even though many firms still anticipated earnings pressure.

Trump's auto levies and his later decision to partially roll them back have already forced major Japanese carmakers to reconsider their production and investment plans in the United States.

Still Friends, But Less Enthusiastic

Despite the recent decline, Japanese attitudes toward America remain more favorable than toward most other major powers. A similar cabinet-backed poll for the Foreign Ministry in 2019 had found that about 70% of Japanese viewed cooperation with Washington as "excellent" or "good," and more than 80% saw the U.S. as a reliable partner.

But the mood is shifting. A Nippon.com poll from August highlights the change: nearly 70% of Japanese say ties with the U.S. have worsened since Trump's second term began, and more than 40% want a foreign policy somewhat more independent of Washington. Goodwill, it turns out, doesn't survive tariffs unchanged.