The Holiday Rally Everyone Was Waiting For

Remember last week when everyone was fretting about whether the dip was buyable? Well, turns out it was. Markets delivered exactly what dip buyers were hoping for, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closing at record levels on a weekly basis. The S&P 500 finished up 3.73% while the Dow rallied 3.18%. But the real star was the Nasdaq, which surged 4.91%—though for the tech-heavy index, this was only the second-highest weekly close in history.

The consumer discretionary sector staged a notable rebound last week, and silver broke out to a new all-time high. Yes, silver. In a world of digital assets and AI stocks, sometimes the old-school stuff still works. Keep in mind this is an abbreviated analysis since markets were partially closed for the holiday, but there's still plenty to unpack.

Two Stocks Worth Watching

Travere Therapeutics: Rare Disease Play with 71% Upside

The Setup

Travere Therapeutics Inc. (TVTX) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on identifying, developing, and delivering transformative therapies for rare kidney and metabolic diseases. It's not exactly a household name, but in the rapidly growing rare disease and nephrology sector, the company is making waves with innovative treatments like FILSPARI for IgA nephropathy and Thiola for cystinuria.

The prior quarter showed revenue of $165.86 million and earnings of $52.77 million. From a valuation standpoint, TVTX is trading at steep multiples—Price-to-Sales sits at 7.17 and Book Value is just 0.82. But here's the thing: rare disease companies often command premium valuations when they're executing well.

From a technical perspective, TVTX is coiled up tightly within an ascending triangle formation, which typically points to a continuation of the rally from the summer lows.

Why This Matters

Travere Therapeutics is transforming the treatment landscape for rare kidney diseases with FILSPARI (sparsentan), its breakthrough drug already approved for IgA nephropathy (IgAN) and showing strong sales momentum in Q3 2025. This positions Travere to address a critical unmet need in the $10 billion-plus rare disease market, where limited options exist for patients at risk of kidney failure. It's the kind of narrative that makes precision medicine investors pay attention: innovative leadership in underserved populations.

But here's where it gets interesting: pivotal regulatory advancements could unlock massive growth potential for FILSPARI in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). The March 2025 supplemental New Drug Application submission to the FDA, backed by positive Phase 3 DUPLEX study data demonstrating significant proteinuria reduction and long-term kidney failure risk mitigation, signals a favorable path to label expansion. Translation: this could potentially double the addressable patient population and accelerate revenue from this high-value orphan indication.

The commercial traction speaks for itself. Q3 2025 net product revenues for FILSPARI surged 40% year-over-year to $56 million, driven by expanded prescriber adoption and patient starts. Full-year guidance was raised to $210-225 million, reflecting a maturing rare disease franchise that builds recurring revenue streams and market dominance in nephrology.

Beyond FILSPARI, strategic pipeline diversification extends Travere's reach into additional rare conditions. Programs like pegcetacoplan for C3G and deramiocel for Alport syndrome are advancing through clinical stages, creating multiple near-term catalysts and a balanced portfolio that mitigates risks while capitalizing on the $100 billion-plus global rare disease therapeutics opportunity.

The analyst community is mixed but leaning positive. Piper Sandler rates it Neutral, while TD Cowen and HC Wainwright both have Buy ratings.

The Trade (71% Return Potential)

The bullish case on TVTX holds above $30.00-$31.00, with an upside target of $60.00-$62.00.

OutFront Media: Billboards Are Having a Moment

What's Happening

Outfront Media Inc. (OUT) is a leading out-of-home advertising company operating one of the largest portfolios of billboard, transit, and digital display assets in the United States. The company leverages technology and data to connect brands with audiences in real-world environments, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing digital out-of-home advertising and experiential marketing sector.

The last quarterly report showed revenue of $467.50 million and earnings of $52.96 million. Valuation looks pretty solid: P/E sits at 31.29, Price-to-Sales at 2.07, and EV to EBITDA at 13.45. Nothing crazy expensive here.

From a technical standpoint, OUT recently broke out from a massive triangle formation, which points to a continuation in the existing uptrend. Breakouts from multi-month consolidation patterns like this tend to have legs.

The Investment Case

Outfront Media is capitalizing on the resurgence in out-of-home advertising demand, delivering Q3 2025 revenues of $467.5 million—a robust beat on expectations. The strength is coming from strong bookings in both national and local markets as brands ramp up spending amid economic recovery and heightened consumer mobility. This performance underscores Outfront's pivotal role in connecting advertisers with on-the-go audiences, positioning it as a resilient leader in a sector poised for sustained expansion.

The strategic digital billboard transformation enhances Outfront's growth narrative and revenue diversification. With total digital displays reaching 1,869 by Q2 2025 and ongoing conversions from static to dynamic formats, the company is unlocking new advertising relationships and premium pricing opportunities. This is the compelling story of technological evolution that drives higher margins and long-term competitiveness in the evolving media landscape.

The geographically and industry-diversified portfolio provides Outfront with a defensive moat against market volatility. Spanning major U.S. markets with a mix of billboard and transit assets across retail, entertainment, and transportation verticals, this broad exposure captures value from urban revitalization and experiential campaigns. It's a stable platform for brands seeking widespread, high-impact visibility.

Targeted acquisitions and experiential marketing expansions signal bold ambitions for portfolio enhancement. The company acquired $8.5 million in assets during the first half of 2025, alongside ramping up immersive campaigns ahead of major 2025-26 sports events like the Super Bowl and Olympics. These cultural tentpoles should drive incremental revenue from high-engagement activations.

Here's the kicker: there's also a short interest position north of 20% in this stock, which makes it ripe for a short squeeze if the momentum continues.

The analyst community is bullish. Citigroup rates it Buy, JP Morgan has it at Overweight, and Barrington Research calls it Outperform.

The Trade (31% Return Potential)

The bullish case on OUT holds above $19.50-$20.00, with an upside target of $31.00-$32.00.

What's Driving Markets This Week

Holiday Seasonality Advantage

Not only is this time of year for the best deals on shopping, but it's also historically the best time of year to be buying stocks. It's even better this year since we just had a 6% correction in the S&P 500 that served its purpose to shake out the market's weak hands.

It's rather peculiar to see stocks so strong with so much negative sentiment floating around. But there are two economic realities this country faces right now. For liquid asset owners, things are pretty good. But for those with most of their wealth tied up in real estate, the last few years have been stagnant at best.

The Fed is going to cut rates again on December 10. This administration is focused on juicing asset prices—whether you think that's good policy or not. More importantly, however, they need to focus on increasing real wages. The job market is uneasy right now, but lower rates should help remedy this in time.

Sector Health Check

There were some internal improvements in the market last week, but there's still an element of caution in this tape. It looks to be resolving itself, though we still see healthcare (XLV) as the top-performing sector since the start of Q3.

The good news is that consumer staples (XLP) is still at the bottom of the pack. When defensive sectors underperform, it usually means investors aren't running scared. Technology (XLK) made some strong progress this past week in a bid to reclaim the top spot in the sector performance rankings.

Utilities (XLU) are still hanging around in third place, but the big rebound last week occurred in the consumer discretionary (XLY) sector, which jumped two spots into fourth place. This is a bullish signal—when consumers are feeling confident enough to spend on discretionary items, it bodes well for the broader economy.

Looking at different timeframes: Over one week, consumer discretionary led the pack. Over three weeks, healthcare dominated. Over 13 weeks, healthcare remained on top. But over 26 weeks, technology took the crown. The rebound in consumer discretionary is particularly good news for bulls.

The AI Trade Barometer: Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq

When it comes to the biggest theme of this bull market—AI—there's no ratio more important than the one between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Remember, all of the AI advancements start with chips. No chips, no AI revolution.

When SMH is outperforming QQQ and this ratio is rising, it signals positive risk appetite for the AI trade. Note how in the past few weeks as the high-flying momentum names pulled back, so did this ratio. Makes sense: if people are getting nervous about AI stocks, they're going to rotate away from the semiconductor plays first.

The ratio is currently forming a wedge pattern that's worth watching. It looks like we just had a successful retest of former-resistance-turned-support, and another higher-low to reinforce the existing uptrend in favor of chips. If this pattern holds, it suggests the AI trade still has room to run.

Liquidity Is Coming Back

Time to check back in on one of the most important ratios when it comes to measuring market liquidity: the relationship between investment-grade corporate debt (LQD) and 3-7 Year Treasuries (IEI).

With the next rate cut scheduled for December 10, this ratio deserves close attention because it should continue climbing higher. As long as it maintains its upward trajectory, it signals that liquidity conditions are improving. And when liquidity is flowing, markets tend to do well.

When market liquidity is strong, you're not going to see sharp market crashes similar to what we experienced as recently as April. Look how the ratio was dropping into that event. But now it's turning up, which is a signal to be buying dips rather than fearing them.

Here's an interesting thought: We know the Fed watches this ratio carefully because of what they did during the COVID crash of 2020—they went out and bought corporate bonds directly. The Fed wants to see this ratio rise because it's a key health barometer for the market.

It wouldn't be surprising to see this ratio soar to record highs someday. In other words, we could reach a point where corporate debt starts yielding less than government debt, simply because of the dysfunction we see in Washington. Wild times ahead, potentially.

Cryptocurrency Reality Check

Crypto bounced last week but still has a lot of work to do before bulls can reassert themselves in the space. Bitcoin, the mothership of the entire sector, deserves a closer look this week.

The strong bounce last week was a step in the right direction, but until we reclaim the 100,000-105,000 zone there are still numerous downside risks. Worst-case scenario: a drop to 74,000-76,000 could still play out if momentum falters.

However, there was a downside target in the 80,000-82,000 zone during this latest drop that has been satisfied. If that ends up being the cyclical bottom, then we could still see Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs in 2026. But confirmation is needed first—specifically, a close back above 100,000-105,000 would signal that a meaningful low is in place.

Until then, crypto remains in a show-me phase where caution is warranted despite the recent bounce.

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