Bitcoin (BTC) bounced about $11,000 off its recent lows, and traders are trying to figure out if this is the real deal or just a pit stop before things get worse.
What Happened: Crypto analyst Trader Mayne is the first to admit he got this one wrong. He thought Bitcoin would find support around $98,000, but instead it dropped into the low-$80,000s, leaving him—and plenty of others—surprised by the severity of the selloff.
Now, with BTC breaking above key downtrend levels after that $11,000 bounce, Mayne sees room for a solid relief rally. Just don't expect new all-time highs anytime soon.
He's completely flipped his outlook, moving from 70% bullish to 70% bearish. His current play? Watch for a lower high and use the $106,000–$112,000 zone as an exit point to reduce risk.
Mayne thinks sentiment will improve as the usual "quantitative easing" and "rate cuts" narratives make their way back into the conversation. That could push Bitcoin back above $100,000 and create some spillover momentum for Ethereum (ETH) around $4,000 and Solana (SOL) in the $170–$200 range.
Why It Matters: The short-term setup might look promising, but Mayne's longer-term view is decidedly more cautious. He's warning about a potential macro breakdown coming in 2026.
His strategy? Exit spot positions early in 2026, then sit on the sidelines and wait for a major re-entry opportunity around $50,000 sometime in late 2026 or 2027.
Adding weight to the bearish case, CryptoQuant data reveals that large Bitcoin deposits are flooding into exchanges—both in absolute size and as a percentage of total inflows. The 30-day simple moving average of these large deposits has been climbing since November 24 and is now approaching its previous October 28 peak.
Historically, that's a sign that bigger players are getting ready to sell, de-risk, or shuffle their capital around. Sure, exchange wallet-tag updates can mess with short-term data, but the broader pattern is hard to ignore: big money is moving coins onto exchanges, and that kind of supply pressure tends to matter.
