Boeing Co (BA) finally caught a break on Wednesday, and Jim Cramer wasn't shy about it. "I am really starting to lean on Boeing for a monstrous 2026," he posted on X, as the stock closed up about 2.5% around $187.

That sounds optimistic. Maybe too optimistic? After all, Boeing just finished an 18% slide over the past month that left the stock looking like it went through a wind tunnel test without the wind tunnel. So the question traders are asking now is simple: Is this a real turnaround, or just a temporary bounce fueled by defense spending?

$7 Billion in Military Contracts Shifts the Narrative

The catalyst was hard to miss. Boeing secured more than $7 billion in new U.S. defense deals, the most concrete good news the company has delivered in weeks. The centerpiece is a $4.7 billion contract for AH-64E Apache helicopters, which includes 96 aircraft heading to Poland and keeps the Mesa, Arizona production line humming well into the next decade. Add in a separate $2.47 billion award for 15 KC-46A Pegasus tankers with deliveries running through 2029, and suddenly Boeing has something it hasn't enjoyed in a while: backlog visibility.

This is the kind of predictable revenue stream that Boeing bulls have been craving. No waiting on commercial jet certifications. No guessing about delivery timelines. Just solid, government-backed contracts that offer supply-chain stability after years of chaos.

The Charts Show Oversold Conditions — But Recovery Isn't Guaranteed

From a technical perspective, Boeing is sitting below almost every major moving average. The 50-day stands at $206.90, the 200-day at $201.04. The RSI reads 36.77, flirting with oversold territory, which has some traders eyeing a potential reflex rally. With shares trading closer to the 52-week low of $128.88 than the high of $242.69, dip-buyers are starting to circle, sniffing out risk-reward asymmetry.

But being oversold doesn't mean you're done falling. It just means you've fallen a lot already.

Starliner Setbacks Keep a Lid on the Rally

Just when things were looking up, Boeing got reminded that not all its divisions are firing on all cylinders. NASA reduced Boeing's Starliner crew missions from six to four, and the next launch has been downgraded to cargo-only in April 2026. This follows thruster issues that forced NASA to rely on SpaceX to bring astronauts home. The contract value now sits near $3.73 billion, a visible mark of both reputational damage and financial drag.

So here's the trade setup: Defense is carrying the load. Space is weighing it down. Commercial aviation remains the unpredictable wildcard.

Cramer might be betting on a "monstrous 2026," but the market is still waiting for proof that this bounce is more than just Pentagon adrenaline. Before the bulls can declare victory, Boeing needs to climb back above its own moving averages and show that momentum can hold without another government contract announcement propping it up.