Sometimes bad data tells a good story, and sometimes it just confuses everyone. The latest drama around BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) falls somewhere in between. A viral chart making the rounds suggested the Bitcoin ETF was hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate, but Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas quickly stepped in to set the record straight. The chart was "way off," he explained, massively overstating the scale of withdrawals and painting a false picture of structural collapse.
According to Balchunas, Bloomberg's internal flow data shows that actual November outflows from IBIT came in under 3% of total assets. That's a routine pullback during a weak month for Bitcoin (BTC), not the meltdown the viral chart implied. He made it clear that while the outflows are real, they reflect normal market behavior rather than a fundamental breakdown in BlackRock's (BLK) flagship crypto product.
The Tourist Exodus Is Real, Even If The Chart Wasn't
The confusion started after economist Mohamed El-Erian shared CNBC's coverage of what they called a flight of short-term "tourist" investors from Bitcoin ETFs as volatility ramped up. CNBC cited $2.2 billion in November redemptions across Bitcoin ETF products based on FactSet's day-by-day tracking. That number appears legitimate—Balchunas wasn't challenging CNBC's reported figures, just the misleading visualization that followed.
The CNBC report framed the redemptions as part of a broader sentiment shift, with speculative money pulling back as Bitcoin's price action turned choppy. That narrative makes sense given what we've seen across crypto markets lately. The difference is that the faulty chart took those numbers and turned them into something that looked catastrophic when the reality was far more measured.
IBIT's Technical Picture Tells A Different Story
Here's where things get interesting: even though the viral chart was wrong about the magnitude of outflows, IBIT is undeniably in a technical downtrend. The ETF broke below mid-channel support near $51 last week and is now trading inside a broad descending channel. After stabilizing briefly around $49, the price action looks more corrective than the start of any meaningful reversal.
The fund tagged the S3 monthly support level at $49.16, which sparked a short-term bounce. But it's still sitting well below a heavy resistance zone between $55.40 and $58.80, where the S4 level and PF1 0.5 retracement cluster together. Until IBIT can reclaim that zone, the broader momentum remains firmly bearish.
Fibonacci analysis highlights just how steep the decline has been. The breakdown from the 0.618 retracement level and rejection at the 0.382 extension show that buyers have struggled to defend earlier support zones. If sellers regain control after this consolidation period, the primary downside target sits at $43.40—a level that would represent a significant drop from recent highs.
Momentum Indicators Point To More Pain Ahead
The RSI currently sits near 33, approaching oversold territory but not yet flashing a decisive reversal signal. Earlier recoveries this year formed at far more extreme readings, which suggests the trend still has room to run lower unless momentum can stabilize soon. That's not a great sign for bulls hoping this is the bottom.
One of the most telling technical developments came when IBIT lost a red structural trendline that had supported the fund for months. That line now acts as firm overhead resistance and confirms the bearish bias. The next major demand zone sits between $43 and $45, where channel support converges with a prior accumulation region. That's the area where buyers might finally show up in force.
If IBIT can somehow reclaim $51.12, it could attempt a move toward $55.42 and potentially $58.86 after that. But given the current setup—broken support, overhead resistance, weak momentum, and a descending channel—that feels like a long shot without a significant catalyst. The path of least resistance remains lower, regardless of whether that viral chart got the numbers right.
