The 2025 holiday shopping season is officially here, with retailers already rolling out early deals ahead of Black Friday on November 28. But here's the twist: shoppers are planning to spend less this year, which means retailers might need to get aggressive with those discounts if they want to hit their numbers.

The First Spending Decline in Four Years

Black Friday remains the heavyweight champion of shopping days, when people have time off work and retailers throw their biggest sales. But a new survey from Deloitte suggests consumers are tightening their wallets this year.

The data shows consumers expect to spend an average of $622 during the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend (November 28 through December 1). That's down 4% from last year, marking the first time average spending has declined in Deloitte's annual survey in four years.

There is a silver lining: more people are planning to shop this weekend. Participation is up to 82% from 79% last year. Among Gen Z consumers, the participation rate jumps even higher to 92%.

The spending cuts aren't uniform across generations. Gen Z and Millennial shoppers plan to keep their spending flat compared to last year. Gen X consumers are pulling back 9%. But Boomers are leading the retreat, planning to spend 12% less this Black Friday weekend.

The breakdown by income level gets interesting. Consumers earning under $50,000 annually plan to spend 12% less. But the biggest cutback? That's coming from households making $200,000 or more, who say they'll spend 18% less than last year.

The only group planning to spend more is the middle-upper income bracket. Consumers earning between $100,000 and $199,000 expect to increase their Black Friday spending by 5% year-over-year.

With many shoppers already browsing deals, the survey uncovered some telling signs: 47% of consumers said they've noticed higher prices this holiday season compared to last year. Another 34% reported that retailers are offering weaker discounts in 2025 versus 2024.

Why the spending pullback? Two main culprits emerged in the survey:

• Higher cost of living (69%)
• Financial constraints (43%)

As for what people are buying, the top categories remain consistent:

• Clothing (76%)
• Electronics (56%)
• Toys (52%)
• Gift cards (51%)

Shoppers Hunting for Deep Discounts and Payment Options

With consumers noticing higher prices and thinner discounts, they're becoming pickier about what qualifies as a "deal." The survey found that 38% of consumers said they would only purchase items discounted by 50% or more during the Black Friday weekend.

Some shoppers are getting creative to afford more holiday purchases. Among Gen Z consumers, 56% said they would cut back on other expenses to free up cash for Black Friday shopping.

Financing options continue to play a major role, holding steady with last year's levels. Up to 64% of consumers say they'll use credit cards or buy now, pay later services to fund their holiday shopping this year.

"Value continues to be the centerpiece of the holiday season, and Black Friday-Cyber Monday promotions are an easy way for shoppers to capture those deals," said Brian McCarthy, Retail Strategy Leader at Deloitte Consulting.