Here's a question worth pondering: If Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has supposedly superior self-driving technology, why aren't traditional automakers lining up to license it? Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund LLC, has a theory—and it's not about technology quality.

Autonomy Is Too Important to Outsource

In a post on X this Tuesday, Black laid out his thinking on why Tesla's dreams of licensing Full Self-Driving technology to other automakers might remain just that—dreams. Sure, legacy car companies were happy to let their EVs charge at Tesla Superchargers. That's convenient infrastructure. But letting Tesla control "their full-self driving capabilities"? Black says they'll "never allow" that to happen.

The reasoning comes down to survival. "EVs and unsupervised autonomy are table stakes for remaining in the automotive business," Black explained. In other words, these aren't nice-to-have features—they're the baseline for staying relevant. Companies that outsource their autonomous driving capabilities are essentially admitting they can't compete in the future of transportation.

Black went further, noting that autonomous driving was "too important strategically for any auto manufacturer to just cede to TSLA," even though he predicts some companies might eventually sign deployment agreements with Tesla. That's why automakers "will continue to invest in autonomous vehicles," he said, much like they "invest in EVs" despite ongoing profitability challenges.

Musk Says He Tried

Black's comments come on the heels of claims from Tesla CEO Elon Musk that the company actually offered FSD licensing deals to legacy automakers. According to Musk, those companies either turned down the opportunity outright or proposed deployment programs that would've been "pointless" for Tesla.

So who's right? Maybe both. It's entirely possible Tesla made offers that other automakers found unappealing—licensing terms that would've made them too dependent on a competitor, or deployment models that didn't fit their strategic plans.

FSD Eyes European Expansion

Meanwhile, Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology continues making headlines as the company pushes into Europe. The RDW (Netherlands Vehicle Authority) confirmed it's been working with Tesla on FSD testing procedures, with a February 2026 timeline in sight for the technology's European debut.

The timing matters because Tesla needs some good news from Europe. The company's sales in the region took a beating in October, with new registrations plummeting nearly 50%. That decline came as Chinese rival BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDF) saw registrations surge more than 200% in the same market.

Price Action and Market Position

Tesla shares climbed 0.39% to close at $419.40 on Tuesday, then edged down 0.07% to $419.10 in after-hours trading. The stock scores well on momentum metrics while offering satisfactory quality and growth characteristics, though value remains a concern. Tesla also maintains favorable price trends in both medium and long-term timeframes.

The broader question Black raises is whether Tesla can become a major automotive software supplier, or whether it'll remain primarily a vehicle manufacturer. If he's right that autonomy is table stakes, every automaker will eventually need their own solution—whether they build it themselves, license from someone other than their direct competitor, or risk getting left behind entirely.