Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) shares have tumbled 10% so far in November, putting the stock on track for its worst monthly showing since March. This is happening despite the company delivering record-breaking earnings and robust forward guidance, as investors pull back from high-flying AI stocks and reassess valuations.

Here's the thing that makes this decline particularly striking: Nvidia absolutely crushed it on earnings. The chipmaker stunned Wall Street earlier this week with $57 billion in third-quarter revenue, sailing past the $54.9 billion analysts expected. That represents a 70% jump from last year, fueled by relentless demand for artificial intelligence chips. Yet even those impressive numbers couldn't protect the stock from a broader rotation out of richly valued AI equities.

Nvidia traded at $181 heading into Friday's close, after a wild session that saw prices swing from an intraday low of $172 all the way up to $184.56. That kind of volatility tells you something about investor sentiment right now.

Adding another wrinkle to the story, Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering allowing exports of Nvidia's high-end H200 AI chips to China. That would be a notable pivot from prior policy. The Commerce Department is reportedly reviewing export restrictions that previously blocked such sales over national security concerns. Whether this materializes could have meaningful implications for Nvidia's addressable market.

The stock is now headed for its sharpest monthly decline since March, when it fell 13.2%.

What History Tells Us About Buying Nvidia Dips

So should you buy this dip? Let's look at what actually happened in the past when Nvidia dropped 10% or more in a single month.

Data from the post-2008 period shows that Nvidia stock tends to rebound strongly after monthly drops of this magnitude, particularly over longer holding periods. According to calculations based on TradingView data, following similar declines, 12-month average returns came in at 66.54%, with a winning rate of 68.9%.

The pattern is clear: short-term pain, long-term gain. Near-term performance remained choppy, with average one-month returns sitting at negative 1.34%. But longer-term investors have typically been rewarded handsomely. Consider what happened after the 13.2% drop in March 2025. Nvidia rose just 0.5% over the next month, but then surged 45.77% after three months and 72.15% after six months.

Even more eye-popping: after an 11.8% decline in September 2023, Nvidia returned 258.34% over the following 12 months. The best 12-month performance in the dataset came after the January 2016 drop, which was followed by a staggering 272.76% gain.

Average Forward Returns After 10%+ Monthly Declines

• 1-Month average: –1.34%
• 3-Month average: +2.93%
• 6-Month average: +23.43%
• 12-Month average: +66.54%

Historical Win Rates

• 1-Month win rate: 51.7%
• 3-Month win rate: 55.2%
• 6-Month win rate: 55.2%
• 12-Month win rate: 68.9%

Of course, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and there were definitely periods when buying the dip didn't work out so well. The 2008 financial crisis period and parts of 2011 saw negative returns even 12 months out. But the overall pattern suggests that patient investors willing to hold through volatility have been rewarded more often than not.

The win rate tells an interesting story too. At one month, it's basically a coin flip at 51.7%. But by the 12-month mark, you're looking at nearly a 70% probability of being in positive territory. That's not a guarantee, but it's certainly better odds than many bets in the market.

The bottom line? If you're thinking about buying Nvidia during this dip, history suggests your time horizon matters enormously. Expect continued volatility in the near term, but the long-term track record shows that similar selloffs have often created attractive entry points for patient investors.