Here's an interesting question: What happens if Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro actually falls from power? During President Donald Trump's first term, U.S. officials decided to find out the hard way — by running war games. The results weren't exactly encouraging.

The unclassified simulations painted a grim picture: Maduro's exit would likely unleash violence and chaos as military units, political factions, and guerrillas scramble to control the oil-rich nation. Not exactly the smooth democratic transition you'd hope for.

Chaos With No Exit Strategy

According to a Thursday report from The New York Times, Douglas Farah, a Latin America security consultant who participated in the exercises at the National Defense University, said officials explored scenarios ranging from a coup to direct U.S. military action. His takeaway? Venezuela could face "chaos for a sustained period of time with no possibility of ending it."

That's where things get uncomfortable. Those findings matter a lot more now as Trump ramps up pressure in his second term. Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group put it bluntly in a statement shared with the Times: "The thing that really worries us is that they don't appear to have any serious plan for what happens afterward." He added, "The idea that you're going to be able to slot in a government and everything else will just fall into place, I think is just fantasy." Analysts are pointing to previous U.S. interventions that created more instability than stability.

Hard-Liners Push Aggressive Tactics

The Trump administration's approach is getting tougher. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has designated Maduro's alleged "Cartel de los Soles" as a foreign terrorist organization. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says this designation expands military options, and U.S. forces are already building up their presence in the Caribbean.

Military Strikes and Invasion Talk

Trump hasn't spelled out his exact endgame. He's called Maduro an outlaw, positioned warships and aircraft within striking distance, and on Monday said he's open to talks — but wouldn't rule out a ground invasion targeting drug trafficking operations.

The military action is already underway. Since early September, U.S. forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats near Venezuela, killing at least 83 people Washington claims were transporting drugs. Meanwhile, according to Al Jazeera, Nobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado says she's ready to take Maduro's place following what many observers consider a stolen 2024 election, promising a rapid transition.

Whether that transition happens peacefully — or at all — remains the multi-billion-dollar question those war games couldn't answer.