The Approval Rebound

Congress ended the government shutdown, but here's the twist: investors aren't seeing the typical post-shutdown market rally. Instead, President Donald Trump's approval ratings are moving in one direction while stocks head the other way.

A fresh Morning Consult poll puts Trump's approval at 46%, up from 44% in the previous survey. His disapproval rating dropped to 52% from 54%. Essentially, he's back where he was before the shutdown drama began. The earlier poll, conducted mid-shutdown, captured Trump at a record low for approval since his second presidential term started in January 2025.

That four-point net approval jump shows the immediate impact of ending the shutdown. Voters have moved on, too. While the government closure dominated headlines in the previous poll, the Jeffrey Epstein files have now taken over as the most talked-about story. Health care remains a persistent concern for Americans.

Speaking of health care, voters trust Congressional Democrats over Congressional Republicans on the issue by a margin of 50% to 37%—a 13-point advantage for the opposition party. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the president's side.

Here's where things get interesting: even with improved approval numbers, voters aren't feeling optimistic about the country's trajectory. Only 37% believe things are headed in the right direction, down from the 43% average during Trump's second term. Among Republicans specifically, 69% think the country is on the right track, down from 77% earlier in the term. Even his own party is showing some skepticism on key issues.

The usual suspects—the economy, inflation, and rising health care costs—remain top concerns for voters.

Market Performance Tells Another Tale

Now let's talk about the stock market, which Trump and the White House have frequently cited as proof of economic success. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, hit all-time highs of $689.70 on October 29, right in the middle of the shutdown. By the time the Morning Consult poll was conducted, the ETF had dropped roughly 3.5% from those highs.

At the time of writing, stocks are down about 4.5% compared to the $683.38 closing price on the last day of the government shutdown. So Trump's approval is recovering while one of his favorite economic barometers is declining. That's an awkward divergence.

History offers some context here. After the last government shutdown in 2018/2019, the market experienced volatility before roaring back in 2019. The SPY posted a remarkable 31.2% gain for the full year—currently the best return for the ETF over the past 11 years. That suggests the longest shutdown at the time was just a blip in the bigger picture.

But 2025 is shaping up differently. The SPY is up 11.6% year-to-date, which trails the 20%+ gains of the last two years. If the year ended today, this would be the second-worst return during any Trump presidency year, beating only the negative 4.6% return in 2018.

Here's how the SPY performed during Trump's first term:

• 2017: +21.7%
• 2018: -4.6%
• 2019: +31.2%
• 2020: +18.4%

With about a month left in 2025, it's looking like one of the weakest years for the stock market under Trump's watch. As investors close the books on 2025 and look ahead to 2026, the big question is whether the market can deliver stronger returns in Trump's second year of his second term—following what's now the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

For a president who often points to the stock market as validation of his policies, the current disconnect between his recovering approval ratings and falling stock prices creates an interesting narrative tension. Whether that changes in the months ahead will be something both voters and investors are watching closely.