Gas prices have slipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since August, extending a slide that actually started before the 2026 midterm elections as crude oil prices came down. And if you are tempted to draw a line between the election and the pump, Patrick De Haan, better known as @Gasbuddyguy on social media, would like a word.

Higher gas prices in 2026 have forced American consumers to cut back on spending in some areas. That could be news of the past, with gas prices going down in November.

De Haan recently shared that the national average price of gasoline is $3.936 per gallon, below the $4 level for the first time in months. Diesel has also fallen to a national average of $6.12 per gallon, with the $6 level likely by Thanksgiving, according to the expert.

The good news is that prices could keep falling ahead of Thanksgiving. The bad news is gas prices on Thanksgiving will still likely be the highest ever recorded.

"I expect these both to be accurate on Thanksgiving: the national average will be $0.75-$1/gal lower on Thanksgiving than on Sept. 24 (peak) the national average will be its highest ever Thanksgiving Day level on record," De Haan tweeted.

The current record highs for Thanksgiving Day were set in 2022, with regular gasoline at $3.56 per gallon and diesel at $5.25 per gallon, based on national averages.

Why Are Gas Prices Falling?

With gas prices coming down after the midterm elections, De Haan has been quick to shut down conspiracy theorists who believe that the election was the main reason for record highs.

"People see whatever they want and that many are wrong. Gas surged due to refinery issues in late Sept. then plummeted, then new issues emerged," De Haan tweeted.

The gas expert reminded consumers that gas prices typically go down after Labor Day due to a switch to the cheaper winter blend and lower consumer demand after summer.

De Haan said the switch to winter blend is the biggest factor due to its pricing.

Fewer road trips and vacations are De Haan's other largest factors in the declining price of gas.

"The risk premium also goes away. Hurricane season starts winding down, and by November the market is pricing in a lot less chance of a Gulf Coast refinery outage."

Summing things up in a post, De Haan highlighted the role of seasonality, which has been consistent over the years, even during elections.

"Gas prices follow oil, refining, seasons and supply. They don't follow election results. Whoever wins, it's the same pattern every fall."