Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)'s China comeback was supposed to be a test of how much business Washington would let CEO Jensen Huang bring back from one of the world's biggest AI markets. Now, Congress is moving to put new limits on that access. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump faces a choice between protecting U.S. national security and preserving a lucrative market for American chipmakers.

Congress Has Three New Weapons Against China's AI Ambitions

Three measures are now part of the Senate's fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) package, Reuters reported on Monday. These give lawmakers another opportunity to tighten restrictions on China's access to advanced semiconductors.

1. The AI Overwatch Act would give Congress greater authority over advanced-chip exports, potentially limiting the executive branch's ability to approve sales to foreign adversaries.
2. The Chip Security Act would require companies to track advanced chips, making it harder for restricted processors to reach China through intermediaries and unauthorized channels.
3. Meanwhile, the MATCH Act would pressure U.S. allies, including countries central to semiconductor manufacturing, to restrict exports of chipmaking equipment to China.

The measures have advanced through the House Foreign Affairs Committee and are now being considered as part of the Senate defense legislation. Their inclusion does not guarantee passage, but it signals that the push for tighter controls has gained bipartisan traction.

Trump Could Decide How Far Nvidia's China Restrictions Go

The White House remains the biggest uncertainty. Trump has previously favored allowing controlled sales of advanced American chips to China, arguing that keeping U.S. companies commercially competitive can help preserve their technological leadership.

In December 2025, Trump announced that Nvidia's H200 chips could be sold to approved Chinese customers under certain conditions. The Commerce Department subsequently moved to review export applications on a case-by-case basis, requiring security checks and other safeguards.

But regulatory approval has not translated into a meaningful recovery. Nvidia disclosed in its August 2026 quarterly filing that H200 shipments accounted for less than 1% of its most recent quarterly Data Center revenue. The company also recorded a $400 million charge related to excess H200 inventory and purchase obligations during the first half of fiscal 2027.

Beijing has created another obstacle. Reuters reported Nov. 5 that approximately 600,000 H200 chips were sitting in Hong Kong awaiting approval for shipment into mainland China. This highlights how Chinese authorities can also restrict Nvidia's access to the market.

The Fight Could Extend Beyond Physical Chip Shipments

Washington's ambitions may go further than the three congressional measures. Commerce Department officials have also been working on potential restrictions to prevent Chinese companies from remotely accessing advanced U.S. chips through data centers in other countries. Such rules could close a loophole that allows access to computing power without physically shipping processors into China.

For Nvidia investors, the stakes extend beyond the revenue it could recover from China. The company has warned that its effective exclusion from the country's data center market has helped Chinese competitors build larger customer and developer ecosystems that could eventually challenge it globally.

Whether Congress can turn its proposals into law, and whether Trump supports or resists them, will determine how much room Nvidia has to compete in China.

Investors should watch the final NDAA language and any new Commerce Department rules: even if Beijing eventually opens the door to H200 purchases, Washington could make sure that door does not stay open for long.

Nvidia Stock Sits Near Its 52-Week Low Ahead of Earnings

The policy fight lands with Nvidia shares near the bottom of their 52-week range. The stock closed at $168.89 on Nov. 10, down about 5.5% on the day, as reports on Huang's ties to a suspected Chinese spy kept pressure on the shares. That left it about 31% below its 52-week high of $243.37, set Oct. 6, just above its 52-week low of $164.27, set March 30, and down about 9% year to date.

Even with Wednesday's premarket gain, Nvidia remains below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages ($206.18, $218.00 and $204.54). Its relative strength index (RSI) stands at about 24, deep in oversold territory.

Analysts have trimmed their targets. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform on Wednesday and cut the price target to $200. Citigroup analyst Atif Malik and Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers kept Buy and Overweight ratings on Nov. 10 but lowered their targets from $315 to $285 and $300, respectively. Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results on Nov. 17, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.48 per share on revenue of $109.17 billion.

NVDA Price Action: Nvidia shares were up 3.92% at $175.51 in premarket trading at the time of publication Wednesday, according to market data.