Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) started the week near $74,000, down 5.1% from $78,000 on Nov. 1, and below its one-year median of $77,000.

The drop leaves BTC between that median and the year's 25th-percentile price of $67,000, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

Bitcoin has also slipped below the $75,500-$76,000 support range watched by trader Doctor Profit.

Both analysts say the next test is whether BTC can reclaim key levels, or hold the 50-week moving average near $75,500.

What the Data Says

• Bitcoin has traded below its 365-day median since Nov. 5.
• Adjusted MVRV, a measure comparing market value with on-chain cost basis, fell to 1.047 from 1.075 over the past week. It is below its 365-day average of 1.054, but remains above 1, a level that indicates the tracked group still holds an average unrealized profit.
• Adler says a move back above $77,000, alongside a recovery in MVRV, would signal improving conditions. A drop below 1 in MVRV would mean the group is at an average unrealized loss.

Could Bitcoin Fall To $68,000?

In his "Big Sunday Report," trader Doctor Profit identified the 50-week moving average near $75,500 as Bitcoin's final major bull-market support.

He noted that three retests of this moving average between 2023 and 2025 marked local bottoms before Bitcoin resumed its rally.

A decisive breakdown could invalidate his bullish outlook and expose the $68,000-$69,000 Fibonacci support zone.

Doctor Profit also highlighted short-term holders' cost basis near $75,800, noting that more than 30,000 BTC recently moved to exchanges at a loss, suggesting capitulation.

Despite the weakness, he continues to expect a local bottom and remains bullish.