Approval ratings for President Donald Trump continue to trend low ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. But in one key Senate race, it may not be the Iran war that hurts Republicans most. It might be the country to the north.

Trump's Approval Rating in Michigan

A new poll of likely voters in Michigan shows minimal support for President Trump, which could be bad news for the Republican Party in key races like the Senate race between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed.

Trump's approval rating is 39%, with a disapproval rating of 59%, in a recent poll from The Detroit News and WDIV TV.

Trump's overall approval is near record lows, while he also gets even lower ratings on several individual questions.

"We have to look at that 39% number in a perspective of history and understand it is amongst the lowest presidential job approvals we've seen going into a midterm," Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba said.

Czuba, whose polling group conducted the poll, reminded voters that in 2006, when Republican President George W. Bush had a bad rating ahead of the midterms, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) won her re-election by more than 15 points.

Some Republicans could lose seats due to supporting Trump's war with Iran. In this poll, Trump gets a 30% approval rating on his handling of the Iran war, with 65% disapproving.

In Michigan, a different factor could be at play.

The poll found that only 27% of likely voters in Michigan approve of Trump's handling of U.S. relations with Canada, while 68% disapprove.

That means a higher percentage of voters disapprove of Trump's relations with Canada than of how he is handling the Iran war.

And it's not just Democrats. In the poll, 43% of Republicans said they disapprove of Trump's handling of relations with Canada.

"What really startled me was that approval of his handling of Canada is at 27%. Michigan is so tied to Canada. That feels like a number we have to pay attention to, because our relationship to Canada is so important," Czuba said.

Rogers has already started reversing his commentary and support for Trump on Canada and tariffs.

"Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war — now," Rogers says in a newer campaign ad.

Tariffs on Canada

It appears that all the jokes about Canada becoming the 51^st state and the increased tariffs on the country that borders the United States could hurt the Republican Party in the 2026 midterms.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins' re-election race is also adding pressure on Trump to tone down the narrative and tariffs on Canada ahead of the election.

Tariffs on Canada have hurt many companies, including beer company Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP), which imports some brands to the United States.

Tariffs on Canada and other countries have impacted the automotive sector, a key player in Michigan. Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) are among those automakers that have tried to lower vehicle costs by sourcing from other countries.

The Canadian energy industry has also been hit by higher tariffs, affecting companies like Suncor Energy Inc (NYSE:SU), Enbridge (NYSE:ENB), and TC Energy (NYSE:TRP).

Tariffs and relations between the United States and Canada have also impacted transportation companies like railway company Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE:CP) and trucking companies Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:KNX).