Gold's sharp correction may have changed the investment equation for ETF investors, bringing bullion closer to its model-implied value and potentially creating room for another recovery.
Gold prices have retreated to levels last seen in December 2025, unwinding much of the premium that accompanied their earlier rally. In a report, WisdomTree said the gap between actual gold prices and its model-implied valuation had largely disappeared.
The asset manager's model projects gold reaching $4,789 per ounce by the third quarter of 2027, assuming consensus forecasts for a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields materialize.
But does the improving fundamental outlook translate into a buying opportunity for gold ETFs?
Inflows Suggest Investors Are Buying the Dip
According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs attracted approximately $10 billion in inflows during September, equivalent to 67 tonnes, even as bullion prices declined 8.5% during the month.
North America accounted for the largest share of inflows, followed by Europe and Asia. The divergence suggests that investors used the correction to increase exposure rather than abandon the trade.
Fiscal uncertainty could provide another source of support. Rising government borrowing requirements and concerns over sovereign debt sustainability are strengthening gold's appeal as an alternative store of value.
However, a stronger dollar, persistently elevated real yields or a more hawkish Federal Reserve could renew selling pressure.
Three Gold ETFs to Watch
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) offers direct exposure to physical gold bullion. With a 0.40% expense ratio, it is among the most liquid vehicles for investors seeking to participate in a bullion recovery.
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) provides similar exposure at a lower 0.25% sponsor fee, making it an alternative for investors seeking longer-term gold exposure at a lower cost.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) offers a different proposition by investing in gold mining companies. If gold prices recover while production costs remain controlled, miners could benefit from expanding margins. However, operational setbacks and equity-market volatility can amplify losses.
Technicals Suggest the Rebound Is Not Confirmed Yet
Despite the improving fundamental outlook, the technical picture remains cautious.
GLD's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 22.79 at the time of publication on Friday. It was trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $369.16 and $379.31, respectively. Reclaiming these levels would provide an early indication of improving momentum.
IAU showed a similar pattern, with an RSI of about 22.6 and a negative MACD reading of -0.623. Its 50-day and 200-day moving averages stood at $75.69 and $77.77.
GDX faced a steeper recovery challenge. Trading around $77.06, it remained below its 50-day moving average of $81.68 and 200-day average of $86.71. Its RSI of about 26.4 also indicated that bullish momentum had yet to return.
A move above the 50-day averages, followed by a sustained break above the 200-day averages, would strengthen the case for a trend reversal.
Can Gold ETFs Rebound?
WisdomTree's valuation analysis offers a more favorable starting point for gold, while September's ETF flows indicate that investor demand remains resilient.
However, technical indicators suggest that GLD, IAU and GDX have yet to confirm a bullish reversal. For now, the correction may be creating an opportunity, but investors still need confirmation that buying momentum is returning.
