Here is a fun thing about polling: everyone looks at the same numbers, but the conclusions people draw tend to depend a lot on which side they are on. Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) offered a useful reminder of that on Tuesday, posting on X about an ABC News report on President Donald Trump's campaign schedule ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Lieu's argument was not that the polls are definitely right. It was that Republicans are acting like they are.

"It is possible there is a systematic polling error in favor of Democrats for the midterms," Lieu wrote. Then came the kicker: "However, I simply note that Republicans believe the same data we are seeing. Otherwise Republicans wouldn't be spending so much time and money defending deep red territory."

Trump Is Camping Out in Red States

The schedule backs up the observation. According to ABC News, Trump had made 20 campaign stops in states he won decisively and six in battleground states since Sept. 9, as of Tuesday afternoon. His visits included Texas, Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Kentucky and Alabama. Trump and Vice President JD Vance also campaigned for Republican candidates in states including Kansas and Iowa.

Some of those stops look less like offense and more like insurance. An early October ReconMR poll found Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 48% to 44% among likely voters, within the poll's margin of error. That is a race worth watching.

Then there is Mississippi. Trump campaigned for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), a state he won by 23 percentage points in 2024. His explanation for the trip was refreshingly blunt: "I can't take a chance."

Democrats See an Opening on Costs

Democrats are not exactly shy about why they think voters might be in a punishing mood. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused Trump and Republicans of raising household costs through tariffs, the Iran war and spending legislation, warning voters could hold them accountable on Nov. 3.

On Monday, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene warned of GOP backlash over the Iran war, affordability concerns and the abandonment of "America First" promises, criticizing Republicans for remaining loyal to Trump.

Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said Democrats could regain control of Congress, citing rising living costs and alleged corruption, but warned that wealthy donors and political groups threatened their candidates.

The Numbers Democrats Are Pointing To

Trump's approval rating rose to 32%, while Democrats led Republicans 47% to 36% in congressional voting preferences, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The survey found that 73% of voters said their cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, while Democrats led among likely voters 53% to 44%.

None of this guarantees anything. Polls can be wrong, and Lieu is candid enough to say so. But campaigns are expensive, and where a party spends its time and money is often a better tell than what its strategists say on television. If Republicans are defending deep-red turf in the final stretch, they are reading the same numbers as everyone else, and they do not seem entirely comfortable with them.