Iran has always been able to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. That's the blunt assessment from Brett Erickson, Managing Principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, after another vessel went up in flames in the Middle East.

Another Burning Ship, Another Iranian Strike

In a post on X on Monday, Erickson pointed to a report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) about a vessel on fire nearly 72.5 miles southeast of Iraq's coastal town of Al-Faw in the Persian Gulf.

"The UKMTO confirms earlier reports of a vessel on fire off of Al-Faw Iraq following what is almost certainly an Iranian strike," Erickson said. He added that the incident showed Iran was hitting targets "FAR outside the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman."

Then he posed the question that matters for anyone watching the region: is it harder to strike vessels "moving under active U.S. air cover," or is it more difficult to hit "undefended" static vessels? Either way, his conclusion was unambiguous. "Iran has always had the ability to shut down Hormuz," he said.

This isn't the first time Erickson has flagged Tehran's reach. He had earlier warned about Iran's capacity to strike vessels outside the Strait of Hormuz after the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) added 122 vessels to its "sanctions" list. He also said that Iranian strikes deep into the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman showed Tehran was "taking it easy" on President Donald Trump.

Khamenei Blames the 'Enemy' for Targeting Scientists

Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued his own warning on Monday through a series of posts on X.

Khamenei said that "Every drop of blood shed from the bodies" of Iran's scientists, professors, schoolchildren and university students and more had given rise to a "storm of determination and progress."

He also said the "malice and criminal actions" of Iran's "enemies" had demonstrated the "pivotal" role played by scientists and elites in "strengthening the country."

And he didn't mince words about who he blamed. Tehran's "enemy" that had "assassinated" the country's "prominent scientists and the influential elite, cannot bear to see Iran advance and grow stronger," he said.

Worth noting: Iran has accused Israel of targeting its nuclear scientists on multiple occasions in covert operations, while also alleging U.S. complicity in the strikes.

Late last month, Khamenei had taken to social media to warn that Iran's enemies, without explicitly mentioning Trump, had suffered "painful" blows at the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and that the enemies would not advance beyond the Arabian Sea.

On the other side of the ledger, reports emerged last week of a possible round of talks between the U.S. and Tehran. That idea was quickly dismissed by Iran's Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee, who warned there would be no clearances of enriched uranium until Trump met Iran's conditions.

Oil Prices Feel the Heat

Oil remains the key market barometer as tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contracts ending in December 2026 recorded a marginal decline, slipping 0.14% to $101.62. Brent futures contracts ending in December fell about 1.05% to $114.59.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, on the other hand, fell 0.79% to 164.88 during pre-market trading on Tuesday, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) ETF dipped 0.51% to $65.05 during pre-market trading.