Cathie Wood's ARK Invest thinks Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has a lot more room to run. Like, nearly 1,100% more room by 2031. The thesis rests on robotaxis and humanoid robots, which means the forecast naturally shines a light on ETFs that offer exposure to autonomous driving, robotics and artificial intelligence.
In a report, ARK set a $4,400 base-case price target for Tesla, alongside a $3,300 bear case and a $5,000 bull case. Against the $367.29 share price cited in the report, the base case implies approximately 1,098% upside.
There's a catch, of course. ARK's forecast leans heavily on businesses that have yet to reach anything close to the scale envisioned in its projections. Investors who want to access these themes through ETFs have several options, each with a different balance of Tesla exposure and broader robotics investments.
Three Funds, Three Different Routes
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) provides the most direct Wood angle. Tesla accounts for 10.31% of its portfolio. The actively managed fund also holds SpaceX (SPCX) at 6.81%, alongside other innovation-focused companies. Its performance, however, depends on more than Tesla, making it a broader bet on disruptive technologies rather than a pure robotaxi investment.
The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) offers a more targeted route into autonomous mobility and robotics. Tesla represents 12% of its portfolio, while SpaceX accounts for about 9.32%. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) is another major holding, providing exposure to the computing infrastructure underpinning AI applications.
The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) takes a broader, more diversified robotics approach. Tesla represents approximately 2.23% of its portfolio. Its holdings also include industrial automation companies such as Fanuc Corp. and Keyence Corp., alongside Nvidia and Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG). This structure offers exposure to robotics adoption without making Tesla the dominant investment thesis.
Robotaxis Do the Heavy Lifting
ARK's forecast goes far beyond electric vehicle sales. The investment firm estimates robotaxis could account for approximately 80% of Tesla's enterprise value by 2031.
Its base case projects 8.1 million robotaxis on the road and $753 billion in annual net ride-hailing revenue by 2031. It also anticipates roughly $212 billion in revenue from Optimus humanoid robots offered through a Robot-as-a-Service model.
Those projections make autonomous driving and robotics important themes to examine when comparing ETFs. But none of the three funds offers a direct claim on ARK's projected Tesla returns.
The Risks Behind the ETF Trade
A slower robotaxi rollout, regulatory hurdles and delays in commercializing humanoid robots could undermine ARK's assumptions. Even if Tesla advances these businesses, ETF investors may see different results depending on portfolio weights, other holdings, fees and broader market conditions.
For investors, the key distinction is between betting on Tesla's valuation and investing in the technologies that could support its ambitions. ARKK and ARKQ provide substantial Tesla exposure, while BOTZ spreads its investments across a wider robotics ecosystem.
The bottom line: ARK's $4,400 Tesla forecast puts robotics and autonomous-driving ETFs on the radar, but the best measure of exposure is each fund's actual holdings, not the upside implied by Tesla's price target.
