Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) stock traded lower Wednesday after analysts cut their price forecasts, with TD Cowen downgrading the stock amid concerns about slowing sales growth and an uncertain recovery.

TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles downgraded Chipotle from Buy to Hold and lowered his price forecast from $44 to $32.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem maintained an Overweight rating but reduced his price forecast from $45 to $40.

TD Cowen Warns of Slower Sales Growth

Charles warned of "slowing sales" as weak October demand threatens Chipotle's expected fourth-quarter recovery, raising doubts about its ability to accelerate customer traffic and meet Wall Street's 2027 growth expectations.

Despite menu innovation, marketing campaigns and loyalty initiatives, Charles believes achieving consensus same-store sales growth above 3% in 2027 could depend on less-proven initiatives, including catering and more efficient restaurant equipment.

The analyst forecasts annual same-store sales growth of 2.5% from 2027 through 2030, including a 2% contribution from pricing. He also expects about 350 new North American restaurants annually and stable margins, supporting low-double-digit earnings growth.

However, Charles believes Wall Street's growth expectations of 3% to 3.5% may be overly optimistic.

He lowered his same-store sales growth forecasts to 1% for the fourth quarter of 2026, 2.1% for 2027 and 2.5% for 2028. Those estimates compare with consensus forecasts of 3.2%, 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively.

Charles also projects earnings per share of 26 cents for the fourth quarter, $1.27 for 2027 and $1.43 for 2028, below consensus estimates of 28 cents, $1.37 and $1.57, respectively.

Chipotle Earnings Preview

Chipotle is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings Oct. 28, 2026.

Wall Street expects earnings of 29 cents per share, unchanged from a year earlier. Revenue is projected to rise to $3.28 billion from $3 billion.

The stock trades at approximately 27.5 times earnings, leaving investors focused on whether Chipotle can deliver enough sales growth to support its valuation.

CMG Price Action: Chipotle Mexican Grill shares were down 4.70% at $28.25 at the time of publication on Wednesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $28.03, according to market data.