Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) just flashed a Golden Cross, the technical signal that gets momentum traders all hot and bothered. For a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) proxy like Strategy, that should be a recipe for a rally. But the chart is telling a more complicated story.

MSTR remains below its short-term trend line, and momentum indicators are still leaning bearish. The signal is real, but the follow-through is not yet there. Think of it as a promising first date, not a marriage proposal.

The Golden Cross Has a Catch

MSTR stock trades at around $137.18. Its 50-day simple moving average stands at $135.67, just above the 200-day average at $135.53, confirming the golden-cross setup.

The gap is narrow, however, and the stock is only modestly above both averages. More importantly, MSTR remains below its 20-day moving average of $147.40, roughly 7.5% above the current price. That level is an important near-term hurdle if the stock is to turn the longer-term bullish signal into a sustained recovery.

Momentum indicators offer little confirmation so far. The relative strength index, or RSI, was 42.89, below the neutral 50 threshold. The chart's MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) reading was negative at -3.72, with the MACD line at 1.24 below its signal line at 4.96. Together, those readings suggest that short-term selling pressure has not fully eased.

For bulls, the golden cross is an encouraging change in trend structure, not a guarantee of an immediate rally.

Problem No. 1: Index Risk

Strategy's first challenge sits outside the chart. Potential exclusion from MSCI indexes has raised concerns about passive-fund selling, creating a possible source of pressure independent of Bitcoin's direction.

That matters because MSTR is not simply a reflection of Bitcoin's price. Its shares also respond to investor demand for the company's Bitcoin-focused strategy, its financing decisions and the potential flows associated with index membership. Even if Bitcoin strengthens, index-related selling could complicate the stock's recovery.

Problem No. 2: The Cost of Buying Bitcoin

Strategy's capital structure is another risk. The company has financed Bitcoin accumulation through equity issuance and other funding mechanisms. Selling additional shares can dilute existing shareholders, while financing obligations can affect how much Bitcoin-related upside ultimately accrues to common stockholders.

That makes the relationship between Bitcoin and MSTR more complicated than a simple one-to-one bet. A rising Bitcoin price may help the value of Strategy's holdings, but dilution and financing costs can change the payoff for shareholders.

For investors, the takeaway is that MSTR's golden cross is bullish, but the stock still needs to reclaim its $147.40 20-day average and show improving momentum. Until that happens, index risk and the cost of financing its Bitcoin strategy remain two reasons to be cautious.