A potential $100 billion Anthropic IPO could hand Wall Street banks a serious investment-banking payday and jolt the broader IPO market back to life, which makes it a potential catalyst for financial-sector ETFs.

Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Financial Services Opportunities ETF (NYSE:GABF), sees the anticipated offering as an important test of investor appetite for new listings following delays across the IPO pipeline.

At an illustrative fee rate of 70 basis points, a $100 billion offering could generate approximately $700 million in underwriting fees, excluding additional revenue from secondary trading and subsequent issuance.

“Major banks delivered on the results and conditions currently support continued earnings gains – healthy US growth led by consumer spending, low unemployment, solid credit trends and markets engagement. Short-term catalyst in potential successful Anthropic IPO. 70bps on $100 billion IPO = $700 million in fees + associated secondary trading and momentum for other issuance post-election,” Sykes noted.

“From a high level, the macro is very important. Today we got the CPI print. We are waiting to get Anthropic as an IPO, 100 billion plus, perhaps 700 million of fees. That would be added to wallet. But more importantly, it will provide confidence in the IPO process to kick off again,” he added, emphasizing that how Anthropic shares trade after listing could influence confidence in future offerings.

Which ETFs Could Benefit?

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) provides exposure to large U.S. financial companies, while the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) offers more direct exposure to the banking industry. The actively managed GABF ETF provides another way to access financial-services stocks.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) could be particularly relevant to the IPO theme because of their investment-banking and underwriting businesses.

The opportunity extends beyond fees from a single deal. A successful Anthropic listing could encourage other companies waiting to go public to resume their plans, supporting underwriting, trading and related capital-markets activity.

Sykes said Goldman’s investment-banking pipeline remained robust despite delays in transactions.

Goldman Sachs represents about 3.36% of XLF’s portfolio and Morgan Stanley accounts for 2.93%. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), at 11.52%, is its second-largest holding. The fund also holds Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) at 4.56%.

For investors seeking more direct banking exposure, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) offers another route, although its holdings and weightings differ from XLF’s.

GABF provides an actively managed alternative. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Sykes’ favorite among major banks, represented 4.22% of GABF’s portfolio as of Sept. 10. The fund also invests across the broader financial-services industry.

The key distinction is that an IPO boom could directly benefit investment banks through underwriting and trading fees, while broader financial ETFs also hold companies whose earnings depend on lending, payments, asset management and other businesses.

Bank Earnings Offer Additional Support

Recent results provide another potential tailwind for financial ETFs. Goldman Sachs reported a 52% year-over-year increase in equity trading revenue, while JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) recorded a 49% gain. Equities financing revenue surged 96%, according to Sykes.

JPMorgan also guided for $107 billion in 2027 net interest income excluding markets, approximately $4 billion above then-current consensus estimates.

"Major banks delivered on the results and conditions currently support continued earnings gains," Sykes said, citing healthy U.S. growth, consumer spending, low unemployment and solid credit trends.

For financial ETF investors, a successful Anthropic IPO could provide a fresh catalyst, but the sustainability of any rally will depend on whether broader issuance resumes and banks can convert stronger market activity into lasting earnings growth.