ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)'s next growth cycle may be measured less by how many chipmaking machines it ships today than by when the world's biggest chipmakers start using its most advanced technology at scale.
Intel Corp (INTC) has exposed more than 1 million wafers using High-NA EUV, while Samsung is targeting 2028 for high-volume manufacturing and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is aiming for 2030 — giving investors a clearer timeline for the next phase of semiconductor equipment spending.
High-NA EUV Moves Toward Production
"This quarter we saw meaningful momentum around High-NA EUV," ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said on the company's third-quarter earnings call Wednesday, pointing to industry announcements showing the technology's progress "from development to production."
Intel has exposed more than 1 million wafers using High-NA EUV systems, Fouquet said, with performance that "meets or exceeds comparable layers patterned using Low-NA EUV." The milestone includes a technology that is already being used in production, although the broader industry transition remains in its early stages.
Samsung plans to introduce High-NA EUV into high-volume manufacturing in 2028, followed by TSMC in 2030. ASML also said availability across its existing High-NA EUV fleet was approaching 90%.
"We now expect to see adoption increase node-on-node moving forward," Fouquet said. That is the longer-term opportunity for ASML: as chipmakers advance through successive manufacturing generations, High-NA could become a more important part of their production roadmaps.
The Revenue Opportunity Will Take Time
The adoption dates matter, but they do not automatically translate into an immediate surge in equipment revenue. ASML CFO Roger Dassen cautioned analysts that the industry is still in the "very initial ramps" for High-NA.
He expects customers to need more tools as they validate the technology in manufacturing and potentially use it across more chip layers over time. Fouquet also pointed to TSMC's plan to work with ASML on larger EUV photomasks as a signal of broader ambitions for the technology. The initiative targets a 12-inch mask pilot line by 2031 and production in 2033.
Meanwhile, ASML is already facing capacity pressure across its existing equipment portfolio. The company expects 2027 capacity for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems to rise 30% year over year, but management now expects planned output in both 2027 and 2028 to fall short of customer demand. ASML is exploring further capacity expansion for 2028.
That makes the investment story two-speed: existing systems and productivity upgrades address near-term demand, while High-NA EUV offers a longer-dated growth opportunity.
What Investors Should Watch Next
For ASML investors, the key question is whether the milestones translate into wider adoption on schedule. Intel's progress demonstrates that High-NA has moved beyond a purely developmental phase, but Samsung's 2028 target and TSMC's 2030 timeline will help show how quickly the technology can spread across the industry.
The opportunity is real, but the timing matters. High-NA's contribution to ASML's growth will depend on customer execution, the pace of adoption and how quickly the company can deliver the systems chipmakers need.
