Here's a fun thing about the wireless industry: for years, the story has been that satellites would eventually eat the cell tower's lunch. Starlink beams internet down from space, terrestrial carriers scramble, the whole thing sounds like the beginning of a sci-fi movie where the ground becomes obsolete.
Then SpaceX went and bought a nationwide spectrum portfolio, and Wall Street's reaction was, roughly: great news for the towers.
That's the twist. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band wireless spectrum portfolio from private equity firm Grain Management in a deal reportedly valued at $8 billion. The purchase could expand Starlink Mobile's U.S. cellular ambitions and position SpaceX to compete more directly with established wireless carriers.
But the more interesting read, at least according to the analysts who get paid to think about this stuff, is what it means for the companies that own the actual physical towers dotting the American landscape.
Isaacson Sees a Major Expansion Opportunity
Walter Isaacson, an advisory partner at Perella Weinberg and a professor at Tulane University, said SpaceX's acquisition of 800 MHz spectrum could significantly expand Starlink's direct-to-cell ambitions.
"He bid on it, he got the 800 MHz spectrum," Isaacson told CNBC on Friday.
Isaacson noted that SpaceX already operates the largest Starlink satellite constellation and has Starship to support further deployment.
"This is huge," Isaacson said, pointing to Musk's view that the potential market could approach the size of the global economy.
He also said Starlink's direct-to-cell strategy has evolved considerably from where Musk envisioned the business several years ago. Which is a polite way of saying the plan has changed a lot, and probably for the better.
Bernstein Sees Upside for Tower Operators
Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei said SpaceX could emerge as a fourth major customer for U.S. tower companies alongside AT&T Inc. (T), T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ).
"What we suddenly have is a new carrier on the tower companies," Rezaei told CNBC on Friday.
She estimated that an additional tenant could increase recurring revenue for tower operators by roughly 10% to 15%, though she said the precise impact remains uncertain. That's a meaningful chunk of change for businesses whose entire model is essentially renting vertical real estate to whoever needs to hang antennas on it.
Rezaei identified Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) as Bernstein's top pick in the sector because of its heavier concentration in U.S. towers. The analyst also highlighted potential benefits for American Tower Corporation (AMT) and SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC).
So the companies that were supposedly going to be disrupted by satellites are, at least in this scenario, the ones collecting rent from the satellite guy.
SpaceX May Partner Rather Than Build
Rezaei said a partnership with an existing wireless carrier appears more likely than SpaceX building an entirely new tower network. Building towers from scratch is expensive, slow and annoying, which is exactly why tower companies exist in the first place.
She also said the spectrum announcement reduces concerns that Starlink's direct-to-cell business could replace terrestrial wireless infrastructure. Instead, she believes the development supports the view that mobile services will continue to require ground-based networks.
In other words, the satellites and the towers are going to be friends, not rivals. At least for now.
Isaacson Highlights AI's Innovation Dilemma
Isaacson also connected SpaceX's rapid expansion with a broader question facing AI developers: how companies balance innovation with restraint.
His upcoming "The Builders" podcast features Elon Musk, Dario Amodei, Peter Thiel, Palmer Luckey and Alex Karp. That's a guest list that reads like a who's who of people who have strong opinions about the future and very few of them involve slowing down.
Isaacson said one of the core issues is whether market-driven technology companies can limit themselves when their products could create risks.
"If you're going to be market-driven, how are you going to restrain yourself when you know you're creating something that can do harm?" Isaacson said.
It's a good question, and one that doesn't have an obvious answer when the incentives all point in the direction of building faster.
SPCX Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 0.62% at $163.58 during premarket trading on Monday, according to market data.