Republicans hoping to flip the midterm script may want to sit down for this one. A new poll suggests that even the kind of wins politicians dream about, ending a war, slashing gas prices, creating jobs, might not move the needle with voters who have already made up their minds.
The Politico Poll, conducted by independent polling firm PF Global and published on Saturday, found that most Americans would not be more likely to support Republicans even if President Donald Trump ended the war with Iran, reduced gas prices by $1 per gallon, or created 100,000 jobs before Election Day. Democratic and undecided voters were especially unlikely to change their intentions.
Voters Doubt Trump Can Deliver
The numbers are pretty stark. Only 29% of Americans said a $1 drop in gas prices would make them more likely to vote Republican, while 28% said the same about ending the Iran war. About one-third said ending the conflict would have no real impact on their vote, and another 20% said it would actually make them less likely to vote Republican.
There's also a confidence problem. Just 27% of Americans believed Trump could end the Iran war or significantly reduce grocery prices before Election Day. Among Trump's 2024 voters, 43% believed he could bring gasoline prices down by $1 per gallon.
Iran Conflict and Affordability Weigh on GOP
Lara Trump, former Republican National Committee co-chair and President Donald Trump's daughter-in-law, acknowledged that the prolonged Iran war could cost Republicans politically in the midterms. But she argued that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon would be worth the potential loss of congressional control.
Verasight CEO Ben Leff has also said that improvements in fuel prices or the Middle East may not substantially change the midterm outlook unless voters actually experience the benefits. He argued that voters' views of Trump were already relatively settled and that any late shift could be limited.
The Republican National Committee pushed back on the assessment. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended Trump's leadership and said he remained committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.
The poll suggests that potential policy wins may not automatically translate into greater Republican support, even as the party faces concerns over fuel costs and the economic effects of the Iran conflict.
